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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Michael Bakunin who wrote (71285)12/3/1999 7:10:00 AM
From: Earlie  Respond to of 132070
 
mb:

A tiny bit of "anthill stirring" is good for the monks in that monastery. (g)

Intel has been on a price cutting tread mill for close to two years now, due to both AMD's remarkable market share theft, as well as market saturation. Intel has managed to flim-flam the true believers through a combination of outright lies, the careful orchestration of analysts' expectations and the sale of the stock of previously acquired small (especially net-related) stocks.

Unfortunately, things are unravelling. Rambus has been an incredibly expensive boondoogle for Intel (can't wait to see the size of the writedown when it comes). AMD is not only still on its feet, but is in fact kicking butt with respect to chip research and innovation. The Taiwanese are ramping micro production at the low end, micros are now essentially a commodity, and the PC market is soggy. Intel's numbers have been worse than sloppy for several quarters now, and I suspect that, for a variety of reasons, stock sales will not sustain the mirage much longer. It is just a matter of time before the market recognizes this new reality and "downsizes the silly PE. A growth company it is not, nor are there any prospects looming on the horizon that growth is in prospect.

Timing the fall from grace is going to be difficult, especially given the herd's propensity for momentum activity and dip buying. Be that as it may, D-O-O-T-M puts make sense to me, especially right after Christmas.

Best, Earlie