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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (71299)	12/2/1999 2:56:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Chuzz, can you fix your post by using proportional font, instead of fixed font. The way you submitted it, it is difficult to read. TIA and TA TA for Now! -g-

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (71299)	12/2/1999 3:18:00 PM
From: S. maltophilia	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Agreed on CSCO. Solved my dilemma with a few leap puts. Buy & forget.-g-

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (71299)	12/2/1999 4:31:00 PM
From: Mike M2	Respond to of 132070

Chuzz, when shorting something to consider is the S&P 500 gets support from the plunge protection team ,index funds and closet indexers. One day the indices will get theirs as well but targets outside the S&P do not have the same support. I agree with you about CSCOs absurd valuation. mike

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (71299)	12/2/1999 4:46:00 PM
From: John Koligman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

In addition, the Cisco guys sound just like many Dell threaders did last year when they were still talking about 'how long will buying 100 shares of Dell take to make me a millionaire'.... Just like this one today on the Cisco thread - another 10 bagger in Cisco would mean a 3.2 TRILLION market cap... Regards, John To: Kenneth E. Phillipps (29843 ) From: Mr. Tomatohead Wednesday, Dec 1 1999 6:32PM ET Reply # of 29907 yeah, five years from now when folks who buy Cisco now are up about 500-1000% will probably feel like folks who bought Dell 5 years ago. They'll feel like buying another vacation home as they do a little retirement profit taking. Not to mention the folks who bought Cisco 5 year ago. They'll be selling those vacation homes to buy themselves small banana republics to retire to...

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (71299)	12/3/1999 8:18:00 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Chuz: Good comments and I agree with your point of view, as well as your analysis. I'm a true tech freak and I revel in what modern tech toys can do for us. I have also fed, clothed and educated my offspring on past tech stock appreciation. Unfortunately, for close to three years, analysts have buried their heads in the sand with respect to an emerging distasteful reality which is that commoditization and overcapacity now "rule" in tech land. I couldn't conduct my business without PCs, instantaneous communications and the net (especially Edgar,...do you remember the hassle to acquire 10-Qs before its arrival? g), but due to both of the above-mentioned, it has become difficult if not impossible to make decent profits in the tech arenas, hence we sing from the same song sheet when it comes to tech stock prices. Current valuations have absolutely no connection with profit potential and hence they must (sooner or later) respond to the pull of gravity. What surprises me about this particular bout of mania is its durability. Historically, when markets approach their ultimate peaks, money managers always suck dough out of the junior and intermediate stocks and pile it into the senior stocks, thus driving them up, irrespective of earnings. As each fund manager knows that his confreres will do likewise, it is an intelligent (from a fund manager's point of view) thing to do. They know that the general public will be mesmerized by the senior indexes, and will still be there ("I'm in it for the long haul") to take the hand-off when the final exodus is at hand. What staggers me is that so few seem to understand that this process is a perfect indicator of an approaching implosion. Perhaps I shouldn't be so surprised, given the arsenal of tricks currently employed. Filthy accounting, bloated employee option scams, massive repurchases of stock, exploding debt and liabilities, analysts who put out obscene "targets" that are supported by nothing except computer generated fantasies, etc. "Live by the sword, die by the sword " comes to mind. If investors can't see the tidal wave coming at them. or if they have decided that they can continue to swim in the ocean until it sweeps into the harbour, then they will reap their deserved rewards. As for me, I prefer to be a distant spectator to such events, rather than a "cannon fodder" participant. Agree with you re Cisco. Another reality check that we have found useful with respect to Cisco, is to subtract the "purchased earnings" (acquisitions) from the reported earnings each quarter to get some sense of internal growth. It's a joke. Unfortunately for Cisco, they picked a fight with a back alley bruiser (Nortel), their market niche is becoming both saturated and crowed, margins are in free fall, and there is precious little of value out there that can be bought, without moving out of the company's acknowledged area of expertise. I see it as an accident waiting to happen, but think it will be one of the last to fall, given its sanctified status. Best, Earlie

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (71299)	12/4/1999 1:20:00 AM
From: incomep	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

[I just completed a thorough-going analysis of Cisco, and concluded that the stock is worth (by my valuation criteria) around $35 tops (and that's being generous). ] We are on the great fool new era of 1929 type. Do you see any events which will trigger to end this mania while the liquidity is so abundant and the internet money (day trading) from online account pouring into the few NAZ names around the world (several of my friends are trading NAZ from HongKong and Europe through internet!). I just looked a company called TEN. If we are crushed on that level, where will all the money go? The dipsters will buy CSCO up again! I am long CSCO and CTXS. ip