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To: BGR who wrote (77744)	12/2/1999 4:31:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 86076

i have a few tech longs...i sold one today (PAMC) which made me a 50% + profit in a mere three weeks. i'm still hanging on to a few others, but the parabolic moves everything is entering into are making me very nervous. it could be that today's jobs report anticipation rally turns out to be a head fake...after all, everybody is expecting a rally on the jobs data, since we have got one every time this year. so maybe it won't happen. doesn't matter to me either way...i'm trying to be market neutral.

To: BGR who wrote (77744)	12/2/1999 5:28:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

You think that the the current Fed is smart and learned its lessons form history, especially from 1929? ------ <<Many years ago the Democratic Party undertook to remedy this whole question of booms and slumps by the creation of the Federal Reserve System. That was the new discovery of its founders and far from wanting the President to do this job they stipulated that this board should have these powers entirely independent of the President… It was indeed promised by Democratic leaders at the time the Federal Reserve was created that they had found the solution to prevent booms, slumps, and panics. I find in speeches of President Wilson, Secretary McAdoo, Senator Carter Glass, and other leaders of their party the recurrent idea that the Federal Reserve System would prevent booms and consequently slumps and panics. A few of their expressions are of interest: "We shall have no more financial panics" "Panic are impossible." "Business men can now proceed in perfect confidence that they will no longer put their property in peril." "Never again can panic come to the American people." "The whole country went along for years with much confidence in these statements, and although no one can say with certainty it is likely that this confidence contributed to the building up of the boom which led to the crash…" [My note: don't forget all the GreeSpam bailouts that are causing the confidence boost and ultimate moral hazard.] "Before the storm broke we were steadily gaining in prosperity. Our wounds from the war were rapidly healing. Advances in science and invention had opened vast vistas of new progress. Being prosperous, we became optimistic – all of us. From optimism some of us went to overexpansion in anticipation of the future, and from overexpansion to reckless speculation. In the soil poisoned by speculation grew those ugly weeds of waste, exploitation, and abuse of financial power. In this overproduction and speculative mania we marched with the rest of the world. Then three years ago came retribution by the inevitable world-wide slump in consumption of goods, in prices and employment." "Again one part of the theory upon which the Reserve System was founded was tested – the idea that business could be activated during the depression by Federal Reserve credit expansion and lower discount rates. Subsequent events showed it had little effect in that direction. Credit expansion certainly proved to be an effective method of promoting a speculative boom when people were optimistic. But when they were pessimistic, it had no effect whatsoever.">> From the memoirs of President Hoover, who was a victim of credit excesses prior to his taking office. prudentbear.com