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Biotech / Medical : GUMM - Eliminate the Common Cold -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hank who wrote (1703)	12/2/1999 7:44:00 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5582

Hank, I appreciate the message and tone in your last post. As I'm sure you are aware, if an announcement is made that the second round of clinical studies will be published in a medical journal, you will be hard pressed to get out of your short position without a significant loss. IMO, successful investing requires one to make judgements about the future. If you wait for news, you're usually too late. Those who are long GUMM believe that Zicam works and that nicotine gum will be highly profitable. Several of us have expressed good reasons for being optimistic, and these reasons have been hashed and rehashed. Those who are short presumably don't think that Zicam works or don't understand or respect what nicotine gum will do to Gum Tech's gum business. I think that's about where we stand with this debate. The thing that investors have in their favor is that Zicam is selling very well and the company hasn't even filled the channel in the US yet. Total international sales could easily top sales in the US. How many companies can claim that their sales will be up more than 500% this quarter? At the rate they are going, sales in Q1 00 will probably be up another 100 percent to 300 percent from Q4 99. Rapid revenue growth such as this and the profitability that it will bring justify a much higher stock price IMO. IMO, the only thing that can derail sales of Zicam and a rally in the stock is if the second clinical studies fail to show that Zicam has either a therapeutic or prophylactic benefit against the rhinovirus. I think that the odds of this happening are very small and if I was going to bet against this, I would sell my stock but not be short. The risk to reward is clearly in favor of those who are long and shorting GUMM before the clinical studies are released is like playing Russian roulette. Good luck, Dan