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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Yougang Xiao who wrote (81819)	12/2/1999 9:16:00 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 1572965

Hi Yougang: A very strong finish (I'll call it at $29.25, which equals its legitimate recent closing high) that was witnessed today on increasing volume at the close is usually a strong indicator for the succeeding day. Assuming no major market negatives tomorrow(inflation alert?), AMD is poised to continue its upward spiral and any convincing move past $29.25 could easily see an acceleration into uncharted near term high territory, taking the price beyond $30.50 tomorrow. As you know, I'm in the camp that considers AMD seriously undervalued at existing levels. The strength of its flash segment, which is just now getting public attention, could, of and by itself, support $30. Without entering any debate on whether or not the Athlon is currently profitable, suffice it to say that "incremental costs of production" for each increased speed grade would appear to be significantly less than those incurred by competitors in their attempts to keep pace. Obviously, there will come a point in the fairly near term, extrapolating on current perceived growth rate of the Athlon, where the Athlon will become profitable> My guess is that the Athlon will achieve a higher margin per chip than its competitors owing to the apparent ease with with which it has moved up the speed gradient to date and its relatively minimal increases (compared to competitors)in incremental costs in so doing. All this is to say that the Athlon does have a positive value and any inference by anyone that beacause it is unprofitable after 5 months of production is nothing but a red herring! (After all, were PII and PIII profitable 5 months from inception?) The real issue the investor needs to address is: What is the present value of anticipated future stream of earnings of the Athlon? and whatever value one comes up with add it to the conservative value oef $30 for the flash business. Now if some here are suggesting that the present value of the Athlon is $0 or negative because it isn't yet producing profits, I for one vehemently beg to differ...The Athlon has all the earmarks of an enormous future income generator for AMD which when discounted to its present value, imho, makes AMD cheap at double its existing price. A down day tomorrow? My hunch is big up if it opens strongly. No matter what the day to day, the AMD overall trend is now up. Hang on to what you got because it could be a prolonged upward move now that the 3 year downtrend has ended! Once tech stocks reverse negative long term trends and scale new short term heights, it is not uncommon for them to run a good piece. This new positive trend looks to be only in its formative stage, a trend that, technically, can take it to $38 very quickly!

To: Yougang Xiao who wrote (81819)	12/2/1999 9:48:00 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572965

RE <<<If the small number of share traded after hour took stock price up, stock price most likely will be down next day. The clown is trying to scare weaker hands out by creating an artificial large percentage downward stock price.>>> Think of it this way, Yougang, just three weeks ago, AMD never got traded in after hours.....no one was interested. Even if we go down tomorrow, we are still moving up in the world. BTW the thing we have to worry about tomorrow is not the after hour trading but the employment report. Lets hope its okay; otherwise everything could go down. ted

To: Yougang Xiao who wrote (81819)	12/2/1999 10:13:00 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572965

Yougang, <It'll be a down day for AMD tomorrow: look at the bottow of this page as of now AMD price is 30/1/2. Someone traded 300 shares to spike AMD all the way from 29 1/4 to 30/21. If the small number of share traded after hour took stock price up, stock price most likely will be down next day. The clown is trying to scare weaker hands out by creating an artificial large percentage downward stock price.> This is getting to be very interesting. I don't have a feel if the after-hour trades have any ulterior motive but they definitely do have undue impact on perceptions. I remember reading in theStreet.com a while back that some folks pop up the prices after hours to create momentum when none exists (because most people do not see what caused the pop but only see the pop and want to get into the momentum game). Your theory is diametrically opposite. I wonder if anyone else have any other takes on the impact of this activity on the next day. I haven't made any sense of this yet other than to notice the same thing that you did. i.e., lower open the following day. Chuck