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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigBull who wrote (55931)	12/3/1999 9:09:00 AM
From: SargeK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

EIA Forecasts 1999/2000, Dec 2, 1999 eia.doe.gov In a nutshell: International Oil Markets World oil prices for the remainder of 1999 and all of 2000 are expected to remain above $20 per barrel. EIA estimates that world oil demand will grow by about 1.0 million barrels per day in 1999, and by an additional 1.4 million barrels per day (1.8 percent growth) in 2000. U.S. Petroleum Demand: Total petroleum demand in 1999 is projected to grow 500,000 barrels per day, or 2.7 percent, from that of the previous year and increase only slightly by 30,000 barrels per day, or 0.2 percent in 2000. Asian Demand: After growing by about 900,000 barrels per day each year between 1991 and 1996, oil demand in Asia (Japan, China, and other non-OECD Asia) grew by less than half of that in 1997 and actually declined by over 200,000 barrels per day in 1998. However, in 1999, oil demand in this region is once again expected to grow (by nearly 400,000 barrels per day). By 2000, Asian oil demand growth is expected to grow by over 600,000 barrels per day, or nearly 70% of the 1991-1996 average annual growth. U.S. Petroleum Supply: As a result of the revisions, average total domestic oil production is now expected to exhibit a decline of 298,000 barrels per day (4.76 percent) for all of 1999.

To: BigBull who wrote (55931)	12/3/1999 9:39:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Big Bull - you aint seen nuthin yet imho !!! how 'bout $500 Billion... CNBC had an interesting discussion this am about the FED having pumped $500 BILLION DOLLARS into the monetary system as insurance for Y2K. Hmmmm; now lets make sure we got this right...(VBG). 1. Y2K is going to be a non-event. 2. We know this because our "government" and the Media-spinmeisters have told us peons it would be so... Now, when was the last time you saw anyone throw $500 BILLION DOLLARS at a "non-event" ? That is not even the story however... Y2K may, or may not be a non-event. But - that $500 BILLION DOLLARS is not a non-event... We have continued job & wage pressures on the economy. The first of the year is when many people receive year end bonuses, negotiate new wage & compensation packages, when companies add staff - make capital improvements etc.The inflationary pressure is going to get worse, not better... Add the housing strength here and a factor that virtually itself will push the fed into a rate hike mode, as the straw that breaks the camels back imho. That factor is consumer spending. There is a huge undercurrent of fear within the consumer banking industry. Consumer spending and thus - consumer debt, has reached beyond dangerous levels. The debt ratio's of the avg Us family is out of control - plain & simple, no other way to label it. This is at the peak of a full employment & rising wage economy. Let this stutter even a single step, and the banking industry is going to see the largest spike in deliquencies and bankruptcies in history. This is being discussed openly; but the Banking industry is so pressured here to ignore this and to grow revenues and to push money - ala~ their allready depressed stock prices; that they can not be relied upon to self-discipline themselves. Trust me; the FED is about to do it for them. What is extremely bullish for the Oilpatch is the timing nature of this confluence of events. 1. all of this is occuring right at the beginning of the peak of demand drawdowns for both Crude Oil & Natural Gas. 2. Saddam may hold a trump card for Crude Oil that no one is seeing; never underestimate his true motive, or intentions. 3. While Y2K will probably be a non-event domestically; we saw what happens on both Wall St and in Globabl Markets from the Russian meltdown & So American debacles of last fall. Let there be a disruption in Middle East, South American Crude Oil production, or transmission - and watch where crude prices could go & see how Global Markets react. Let there be any disruption in the financial markets globally and watch where the US market goes. - that $500 Billion is not there because there is no risk... Never has there been such a "timing sensitive" confluence of events that could lead to a massive sector rotation to the Oilpatch and never has there been such a supporting set of fundamentals for Global Supply & Demand underlying the support for the sustainability of strong Crude prices.The market is so mesmerized by the overall market and especially the NASDQ, that they are totally ignoring the Oilpatch and its underlying fundamentals here. They have in fact used its prior near Sector leading YTD gains; as a petty cash account to both play the NASDQ game and to raise cash for potential Y2K redemptions. Also, as far as shareprices in the Oilpatch - never has there been such a divergence between valuations and crude prices. E&P's are at pure anomaly valuations here. This will not continue. We've seen 50% moves in the Oilpatch in amazingly short periods of time. Saw them in '97-'98 and with crude prices and supplly/demand fundamentals - and also with Market valuations no where near here. We are going to be riding the Big Wave here into Boom 2000. The Y2K Spike for the Oilpatch is going to jump start Boom 2000 unlike anything most are expecting imho. Buckle up...enjoy the ride.