Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Osicom(FIBR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SteveG who wrote (10149)	12/3/1999 2:29:00 PM
From: SteveG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10479

after punching through the 52wk high (3+ year high) on likely record volume (if we see >3.2MM) - we have some short term profit taking from $30, but here is how it looks going forward: FIBR is unfollowed and undervalued. with ~10MM shares outstanding, at 28 say, a market cap of ~$280MM. 7.5MM shares of NSIL at ~13 = $100. Now IMO, NSIL will more likely move up over the next 6 months than down, but let's assume it stays here, and then subtract off a 20% DISCOUNTED $80MM that leaves $200MM for Sorrento and FIBR's access business. The access business is probably worth $40-$50MM, but let's say $30MM and subtract that - which leaves $170MM currently "on the books" for Sorrento. Now Sorrento is definitely FIBR's crown jewel. They are the market leader in the nascent field of Metro DWDM. Unlike CIEN and NT who have adapted their metro DWDM from backhaul technology, Gigamux was built from ground up to be used in metro - so it is MUCH cheaper (at best case ~85% cheaper than competitors and often 70% cheaper), is modular and more feature rich. And this field hasn't even begun to ramp yet - but it WILL. Think about it. WDM is clearly the direction that networks are moving in. And besides significant boost to bandwidth, WDM offers essential network (lamda) management functionality. So Sorrento will be the premiere Metro DWDM player - with state of the art optical switching capability to be built into Gigamux by next year. So what is Sorrento worth? what premium will the market reward them with? $1B? $2B? $5B? let's be REAL conservative and say $500MM. That leaves, at the very low end, about $33 of value (FIBR at $51) yet to be appreciated by the market. currently unfollowed with significant upside from here.