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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (71358)	12/3/1999 8:51:00 AM
From: gnuman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Congress Exceeded Spending Ceiling by $37 Billion, CBO Says "A final accounting of congressional spending this year confirms that Congress blew the fiscal 2000 spending ceiling by $37 billion and in the process heavily relied on the Social Security surplus to help cover the additional spending. The year-end report by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office also warned that if Congress continues to spend at this clip, the surplus both parties are counting on could turn into a deficit the following year, when a new Congress and president take office. Republican presidential front-runner George W. Bush this week unveiled an ambitious $1.1 trillion tax-cut plan for the coming decade solely financed by future surpluses.........." washingtonpost.com

To: Earlie who wrote (71358)	12/3/1999 9:52:00 AM
From: BGR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie, I think traders trashing the long bond needs to know that, as inflation in a recessionary economy, while not unheard of, is relatively rare. :-) -BGR.

To: Earlie who wrote (71358)	12/3/1999 10:07:00 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 132070

NEW US BLS EMPLOYMENT SEASONALS SEEN AS FAIRLY RESTRICTIVE By Joseph Plocek WASHINGTON (MktNews) - The new seasonal adjustment factors for employment and earnings released Monday morning by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics are seen as fairly restrictive and may dampen payroll growth going ahead, economists say. Ray Stone, principal at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates said he is sticking to his forecast of a 140,000 gain in November nonfarm payrolls. Since "this is at the low end of expectations," it may not matter to fine-tune the payroll gain within 10,000 or 20,000, Stone said. The new seasonals "on the surface are a bit restrictive and might depress employment," Stone said. But since he had a low number to begin with, there is no reason to move the forecast even lower, he indicated. Economists differed only slightly in their interpretations of the new factors. In part, the differences came because the factors were released by job type. There were more than 344 seasonals for payroll sectors alone, for example. David Ressler of Nomura Securities agreed. He said, "judging by what they (the new employment seasonals) are showing they would not seem to be much of a factor in the forecast." Nomura's November employment forecast remains at +190,000 for nonfarm payrolls. Many other analysts chose to maintain their prior estimates for payrolls. Bear Sterns economist John Ryding said he had "not even thought of changing" his expectations, suggesting that a shift in his payroll estimate would be minimal when he completed his analysis of the data. Where the new information changes the picture from the previous outlook is going forward. Private analysts will use the information to project what adjustment does to monthly forecasts, whereas the BLS uses the adjustment factors to "anchor" the forecasts from August 1999. The retail sector has been changed a bit by the new seasonals, economists said. The new adjustments look for more jobs creation in retail this year than in prior years. Stone said his calculations differ in that they look for retail jobs to gain 336,000 workers this year, versus a 264,000 gain in the BLS numbers. Retail jobs fell in September and October and this deceleration accounts for the difference. Another economist who was still working on the data said his preliminary estimates were that the new adjustments might add 62,000 jobs to September and subtract 33,000 from October, for a net gain of 29,000 jobs. September's payroll gain was reported at 41,000 and might become up 103,000. October, previously at up 310,000 jobs, might now become up 277,000. "Our main thesis is there are not enough workers and the seasonal, which anticipates a big, big gain in retail jobs, may be disappointed," Stone concluded. The bottom line therefore might be smaller payroll growth ahead. --Kevin Kastner contributed to this article.