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Technology Stocks : Energy Conversion Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ray who wrote (4277)	12/5/1999 12:52:00 AM
From: Michael Latas	Respond to of 8393

Ray, I personally do not believe anyone is disregarding the lithium polymer battery technology. I, for one, am not. I will try to answer your question. Our NiMH battery has already been proven in the marketplace over a period of years. Ours is the only safe, market proven and environmentally friendly rechargeable battery technology in the marketplace that I know of. You either agree with that statement or have facts to the contrary. I do believe that progress will continue to be made with the lithium polymer technology. But, the same can be said about NiMH. We have a long, long, way to go before our technology improvements peak out. We continue to make advances in technology and in the marketplace. We are currently at 100wh/kg and improving. Everything I hear about Lithium polymer technology is that it is still in the development stage. From what I understand the Japanese still feel that another couple of three years additional R&D are still needed to commercialize lithium polymer battery technology. Are they right or wrong? The largest single advantage lithium polymer technology has over lithium is that they use a gel electrolyte rather than a liquid that is supposedly considerably safer, but still not completely safe. That's it, based upon everything I have read or know about the subject. However, lithium technology is still three times more expensive to mfg'r over NiMH. You never hear about these costs in the various articles on the subject. The only applications that can justify lithium is where weight is a crucial factor to a point where a person is willing to pay a 300% premium. That is the most significant advantage to lithium technology currently. Do you know something that the rest of us don't? Don't hold back. They used to have an upper hand in energy density back early on. However such is not the current case. Lithium-ion batteries still have their niche markets as will lithium polymer, when they prove out their technology in production and then in the marketplace. But, so far, they have yet to accomplish this feat. In my opinion, it is simply a matter of time. However, the mfg'ng cost issues will still plague their technology. Have you considered what the prospects are with our China joint venture as it would relate to future costs of raw materials, electrodes and mfg'ng costs of our NiMH batteries? What do you think? Lithium-ion and lithium polymer technology will continue on as will our NiMH technology. Our three year cost sharing research grant to develop our nickel-magnesium battery technology will be up in Oct.,2000. This will not only reduce our cost further, but reduce the weight of our battery and improve our wh/kg. And, once that research grant ends what will be the new element ECD will be pursuing? It doesn't end there. The battery business is no different than any other products whether it be computers, automobiles, tv's, or you name it. No one company controls the entire market. It is no different than Intel in the chip business. I would only say that if I really believed strongly in the lithium polymer battery technology I would be into Valence in a New York heartbeat. You can hedge your bet, or simply invest in Valence. The stock is certainly priced low enough at the present. One last thought as it would relate to L/S/I batteries. Our NiMH battery would be less than half the size of a lead acid battery. Do you honestly believe the cost-conscience auto mfgr's would be willing to spend three times as much for a lithium polymer battery in order to gain whatever small weight advantage they would have over NiMH batteries? I would also ask you if you think the safety issue on prismatic size L/S/I batteries have been totally addressed? What do you think? Siemens expects to be launching the 42V electrical system in the Spring of 2002, just two years away. That is right around the corner in mfg'ng terms. Contracts are going to have to be let very soon in order to be able to set up mass production lines along with the need for tooling. It is because of the above statements that I believe so strongly in our NiMH battery technology. And, believe me when I say I have an open mind to ALL new technologies. Furthermore, I have a full respect for all competition. We, ECD, do not have a dead lock forever-more on the battery of choice for all market niche's. I only wish it were so. But, not hardly. I do, however, feel very strongly that ours is the very best battery technology for the L/S/I battery market until further notice. I fully respect all opinions and comments. And, certainly your comments and opinions are greatly appreciated. It makes for a lively, interesting, discussion group. By the way,I was informed that our upcoming annual shareholders meeting would be held on Jan. 27, 2000 in Troy, MI. Regards.