To: Gary Burton who wrote (55975 ) 12/3/1999 1:59:00 PM From: SliderOnTheBlack Respond to of 95453
GaryB; re: UPR - Schroeder report; also Merrill, SSB, Pru bullish on UPR Here's a link if you want to buy Schroeders report, or to access the "FREE" research trials offered by Merrill, SSB, or Prudential. Brent save the "junkie" comments - the entire free world is high on UPR - aint nothing to "hype" here.multexinvestor.com Now, for the "anit-junkies" of the world; the answer to why then, aren't these stocks moving ? - Selling in most E&P's is due to; as the Merrill Lynch report comments on - "Institutions using the E&P sector as currency to move to more momenteum oriented sectors." They simply believed that Oil Prices would crash & burn to $16-18 again here. Do you guys remember me saying one of the reasons that I sold into this earlier OSX rally - was because Dain Rauscher among others; had issued research reports to Institutional level investors - saying rent, don't own the e&P's and sell the OSX at 85ish. They did both... In case you didn't notice by the way; Dain Rauscher is coming around - issuing a couple of upgrades, new coverage in the Oilpatch. The table pounding will come again soon - they will be "hero's" - when they say sell the DOW & NASDQ soon & rotate to Oils... can you believe they get paid for that ? This is a very simple bet. If you think Crude prices will stay in a $20-$22 range, or higher; you will make "50% to doubles" within the E&P sector within 60 days to 6 mos imho - as these Institutions did not believe in the "sustainability" of crude prices story; they are beginning to; but are now riding the NASDQ mo-mo merry go 'round; and as soon as they get thrown off - they'll be back. You simply must focus on reality here - not market sentiment, not spin doctoring - just the numbers and their historic relationship to valuations - period ! Gas is near historically high levels - Gas stocks would be setting records here with $2.45 Gas in years past. So what's changed ? - the answer is nothing, other than the attraction of the DOW & NASDQ going to new highs and offering less volatility & better liquidity is what is happening... The Insititutions know the value is here; but they also know the sector "aint" going no where without their return here. It will take the return of the "mo-mo" money for us to return to prior highs, or to go to new highs. The Institutional money knows this - they are not worried about missing the boat - as "they" are the "TIDE" that floats the boat. Without them - it aint happening. Where we are now, is all that the Energy Funds & value players can muster. Maybe another 10%, or $3-$5 in some individual short covering on certain stocks. But, we can not make the big move - without the mo-mo players returning. We only need - EITHER, the NASDQ, or DOW to falter, or for a major catalyst to lift either Nat Gas, or Crude prices, (but especially crude prices)to new levels - as Nat Gas is just fine in reality here. The continued API drawdowns to levels where the sustainability of sub 300 M boe is believed - will unleash a huge flow of funds here - just watch.... Actually we all know we are fine, if Crude merely sustains itself above $18. But, we need a breakout to bring the MO-MO crowd to Jesus... Beat the crowd to the party; becuase it's going to be a wild one - as soon as that merry go 'round stops - bank on it. The next 2 weeks API's should be hammers...