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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (29919)	12/3/1999 5:51:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 50167

I think from your last post on 2nd to this post within 24 hours we have seen a lot of water passing under the bridges. In that post too you were looking to buy some puts and I appreciate that. I don't argue with your high valuation outlook but I try to squeeze the market as much as it is possible..albeit being cautious, for me I wrote very clearly that if 1431 is out we will go to 1455( next week) and that what we did today, we tested 1452, than towards the end of the day I thought 1445 area is the resistance and we did close below it, all this is in uncharted territory. I pin these points with lethal accuracy and benefitfor them, my model works on down side and upside as recent events proved it, I shorted the market below 1414 covered it at 1398 again shorted it and covered it at 1408. I am very much playing within my limits with some outside the money calls, taking opportunities when they are offered, that is the only way for me to play this market, I am neither a bull nor a bear. To buy puts I have a lot time,I do it for insurance purpose all the time and i know what it is like to see evaporating premiums. We tested 1392 and my point was if we take this out we even see 1382 only below 1382 we go to test 1350 now someone who has this every day mantra of the market, I don't like to second guess and chase short positions. I know that in 24 hours put premiums have considerably disappeared from some of these leaders like AOL or NOK or SUNW. Now if since April you are working on long puts premises like many of your friends do, that is for me not the kind of strategy that makes money in this market. For me we need to partake from this bull a chunk of my share of bull,so as to use our ability to buy huge put positions when key levels are taken out. I write my key levels every day but on the other hand try to make money with momentum on the side of the move. I never chase a stock and like I don't want to chase a stock making new highs. I would not like to buy puts at a false break like the one we had recently and we roared back up, I covered my second set of long puts above 1408 and was still able to make 80 cents but if I had to leave them I just checked they would be cut to miniscule size. I just don't know how one can make money in explosive market like this,, retaining huge short positions or long puts, we will buy puts when bonds will rally above 6.35% we will buy puts when we get this break below 1428 if market breaks below it after we have a second close above 1428 on Monday. Today action will be a false break and I will buy puts below 1418 on Monday if we cannot sustain 1428 on Monday. I will like to buy puts on DOT index but I will wait for it to drop below 965 or NDX breaking 3145. I have all these points but I don't think that we will have 1929 type of situation, instead of market leaders breaking we may see some rotation as market laggards start picking up. For me I keep my options open for me I work on what market shows me, and for me it works perfectly, lot of gurus who believed in their 'exotic' stuff has finally said good bye for only reason they violated the first cardinal issue never think your ideas to be bigger than the markets. I have recently talked about SUNW NOK when I talked about these issues and called for new levels the stocks were much lower today although we had lot of argument as to valuation of SUNW we sit at 140$ and NOK 154$. On one had my outside the money strategy has worked wonders on the other I am as I told Mohan trying to gain as much of momentum as it is humanly possible by employing as little of capital as it is possible. I have calls of CSCO, I bought them for 5$ now they are 26$'s within weeks, now for me I have huge position and I would blow it below 1382, but at the moment something recently placed at 5$ is providing me the run why prematurely I should close it? That is one of the benefit if being a bull if I loose even all of my capital it would be 5$ only, but corresponding leverage is great. No one who is a part of this market is putting new money in, rather every one of us is using derivatives, this thread our last few years has seen a lot of shorts burnt in their earnest desire to burn the market, these arguments you have raised are very much a part of this thread at CSCO 50 call on May 1997. Even than Tech Stock Option thread was calling to short it, not that now it is not good enough a level to short, but the beauty of our every day wasting of time here is to make money on daily basis. If we can't, we can be passive investors and tell nice stories about 1929 depression to each other, I undoubtedly accept that their is no dearth of story tellers on SI, the threads have legendary figures who have been talking about big Kahuna and dispensing gurus advice to short for long time. I will short with vengeance only when time comes and will do it far better than many a short story tellers, at the moment. I am cautiously looking at the bonds, expanding into Japan and watching for that close above 1428 on Monday if not I will call this whole Thursday and Friday move a suspect. So, rest assure that although we don?t read Favors or others we keep a close watch on parameters that keep us long ion the market at the same time liquidating our heavily in the money positions, in last three months that is what we been doing here with greatest success . Like you we will not leave our money on the table, by the way it is already taken off. Good traders don?t get carried away with emotions neither do they love their positions, this I have learnt over last twenty plus years in the markets. I come to market with an open mind and I hope that is what keeps us going here. I wish you best of luck in your strategies and hope that we join you on the way down with equal passion and love for these great markets. I hope it will not be a long walk or wait....gg