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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (34680)	12/3/1999 11:03:00 PM
From: Stephen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

It's interesting that people are starting to believe that Y2K is a non-event. FWIW I posted in October one of my real fears ... but it seems that I maybe alone ... (or maybe not.... as the banks/financials have been a lagging sector). My main concern is that there are numerous hedge funds and derivative transactions with entities in 2nd & third world countries that have not addressed the Y2K issue. This means that the increase in counterparty/third party settlement risk is considerable. It may well be that rollover or back to back transactions have been amended to avoid year end ... but my feeling is that, as matched transactions, these would only probably be by a day or two which may well prove insufficient. If those countries whose systems fail do not have decent back-up procedures (assuming anyone can remember how to process manually these days) then I see a problem and potentially some domino effects. In October I expected the credit ratings of some countries to be reduced .... but I believe that that decision (though too late) would have created too many problems ....so I guess the preferred approach decided upon was cross fingers and hope. Personally, I will be very surprised if some s**t doesn't hit some fans ... the more relevant question is ... when will we know ... and will financial institutions pull money out before the end of the year because they have the same concerns ??. On those thoughts ...have a great weekend everyone !! Stephen