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To: 16yearcycle who wrote (86191)	12/4/1999 11:57:00 AM
From: Bill Harmond	Respond to of 164684

I started buying it last month on that gap to 71. I don't know exactly what got me started on it, I just heard some noise here and there, knew Micron was the cost leader, figured that all previous generations of DRAM are useless now, but didn't have any idea about the production dynamics vs the far East. That was the icing on the cake for me, and caused me to make the big bet this week. Rick Whittington is obviously the best semiconductor analyst there is, but here's what John Lazlo at Paine Webber has to say on 11/17: MU-$68.88 Micron Technology: Reiterate Buy Rating KEY POINTS ú We see current stock price as an excellent buying opportunity. With our EPS estimate of $4.28 for fiscal 2000, the stock is trading at roughly 15x earnings. Our EPS estimate for 2001 is $7.76, or a P/E of 8x. ú The company has confirmed contract prices in the range of $11-$12 and sees strong demand for its 64 Mb DRAM components from all major OEMs. Output is expected to more than double within a year in order to meet customer bit demand that is expected to increase 100-120%. As we have mentioned before, the current quarter is sold out, and with supply arrangements in place, output going forward is increasingly becoming more allocated (or earmarked for preferred OEM customers). ú MU operates the leanest and most technologically advanced DRAM business, with significant and continuing manufacturing cost reductions. Due to successful die shrinks from .21 to .18-micron, with 100% of wafer starts in the U.S. on .18-micron and 50% of international wafer starts at .18 (to be 100% by year-end). The production cost of a 64 Mb DRAM component decreases from approximately $5 to $3.50 with a .21. 18-micron shrink. The good news gets better as MU will continue shrinks into the new year starting with its Boise fab with a target of 50% of output going to .15-micron by year end 2000, which will logically reduce component costs below $3.50 ú The bottomline: Supply is tight and is expected to be tight for the next 2-3 years, demand is strong and expected to get stronger, customer supply arrangements are in place and we expect more arrangements with key OEMs, contract prices are firm, MU's manufacturing costs are the lowest in the industry and are expected to go lower, average gross margins are expected to more than double from 21.5% in the recently ended fiscal year 99 to the 40-42% range in the next 24 months. We reiterate our Buy rating and price target of $160.

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (86191)	12/4/1999 12:56:00 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

From next Monday's Barron's: At a time when investors' concerns about excessive spending are running high for Amazon.com, the firm's new chief financial officer, Warren Jenson, was on hand in Scottsdale [at Credit Suisse First Boston's annual technology conference] to allay such fears. Last Wednesday, the same day Amazon announced that it took a 17% stake in luxury online retailer Ashford.com, Jenson attempted to persuade believers and non-believers alike that the company's zeal to build the biggest e-tail site on the Web was not without discipline. "There's not an ounce in our blood ... that we would approach anything cavalierly," said Jenson, who is a seasoned vet at talking to the Street after successful stints at Delta Air Lines and General Electric's NBC unit. In fact, Jenson referred to his previous experience at NBC to make an analogy defending Amazon's hyper-aggressive expansion strategy, whereby it added more than a dozen new online operations in just a year's time. Jenson contended that Amazon's brand name and massive customer base is so powerful, it is not unlike a major television network when it dominates the ratings. "When we launch a new site, it's like launching a new show behind Seinfeld every time," Jenson said. Maybe that makes Zshops the e-tailing equivalent of Just Shoot Me. "We are working hard toward profitability," said Jenson, reiterating that the company expects its book business to be in the black during the fourth quarter. CSFB's Internet analyst, Lise Buyer, indicated that Amazon will probably provide more detailed financial results to keep the natives from growing more restless. A case in point is the company's recent release of early holiday sales performance, saying Amazon's business was 19% ahead of last year's post-Thanksgiving results. In a session closed to the press, Buyer asked venture capitalist Doerr if it was important for Amazon to begin paying more attention to the bottom line, and "he said yes." In addition, Doerr intimated that Amazon had an obligation to shareholders to start sharing more details about its operations and performance. Coming from Doerr, that's news. He is a partner of Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, which knocked up a grand slam with its early stage investment in Amazon. "We can learn a lot of lessons from Amazon," Doerr reportedly told the crowd. What those lessons will be, however, is about as clear as the e-tailer's alleged timeline for profitability. interactive.wsj.com