To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (34745 ) 12/5/1999 9:05:00 AM From: dennis michael patterson Read Replies (3) | Respond to
Market Call. Lee: here is my market call for December. As you know, I am a reader of Jerry Favors and Chuck Carpino. Carpino reads the cycles as well as anyone, and Favors' Elliot wave analysis has been hot of late. Carpino says there will be a ST top (SPX) between December 7--10, followed by a pullback into the 12/15--17 area. He expects a decline to either of two points. The milder one is SPX 13 68. More severe 1349.64. He said he expects the milder correction, and thinks it should be bought if rates are cooperating. He thinks the Naz will hold up best in any correction. For his part, Favors says that we rally into the 9th, plus or minus a day, then fall into the 15, plus or minus a day. THEN, he says, the rally will be relenetless to the upside. I then look at Shepler, who has been uneven of late. He says that with the usual good seasonals, we may head up into January. Finally, there is Michael Belkin, who has been bearish on stocks (with the expcetion of large nutz and gold) who says that the fed is pumping massive liquidity in here that will take us higher into January. So, what does this all mean? I am betting-- with real money -- that this things keeps trending higher into January. Favors believes we are tracing out 3 Peaks and a Domed House on the Dow. He said this in the summer of 1998 and he was right. he got me out at the exact top. But, the pattern-- if, indeed it is the pattern now -- has no major pullbacks associated with it. This is how I have come to my decision to stay long... [note: for thos einterested in my sources, see my profile for carpino's phone number; Favors at marketweb.com or jerryfavors.com ; Belkin is at strategicinvestor.com and Shepler urbansurvival.com ] FYI, I am no technician, and I am an amateur in investing. I recognize that many people on this thread are pros, and I respect their opinions. I share the above info with all, but especially other amateurs, to empower you to come to your own conclusions about the market. This is hard work, but good work. Best wishes to all.
