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Technology Stocks : Gemstar Intl (GMST) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucas Hsu who wrote (980)12/5/1999 5:02:00 PM
From: Peter Sherman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6516
 
lucas - i have posted here many times that we are buying TVGIA as a backdoor into GMST while picking up the arb spread -- the spread obviously accounts for the small, as I see it, possibility that the deal may fall thru - as in the ancient Tellabs/Ciena fiasco - or do I have those companies wrong -anyway, I see buying TVGIA as an arb play, that's all - deal happens, you make dough - deal fails, you lose - that's life



To: Lucas Hsu who wrote (980)12/5/1999 5:38:00 PM
From: NY Stew  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6516
 
Lucas,

What is the probability of this merger not closing?

Better the 50:50 but surely not a slam dunk.

More importantly, what will happen to GMST if this merger fails (both long and short term)?

If you would have asked this 40-50 points ago I would have said that the market would have rewarded Gemstar and punished TV Guide. Now, I believe that both would take a negative hit short term.

Just an opinion. The market likes to fool us all.

Regards
Stew



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