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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 100cfm who wrote (12045)	12/5/1999 1:31:00 PM
From: Sam Johnson	Respond to of 54805

Sam, just my 2 cents based on my understanding of the GG and lack of understanding of jdsu's products, i would ask the following questions (followed by a bunch of good questions that I absolutely can't answer) I was afraid someone would question me too closely about the details of JDSU's market. I just don't know enough about their technology, products, etc. to give a good answer. I hope someone else here can address your questions, because I'd like to know also. Sam

To: 100cfm who wrote (12045)	12/5/1999 2:03:00 PM
From: gdichaz	Respond to of 54805

100cfm: While I am only an observer, I may have observed wrong, but here goes to the best of my ability. Q1. No simple yes or no? Surprise? There is every indication that both NT and LU are using JDSU as their key fiberoptics widget equipment supplier. Becoming more dependent, and not trying to do in house what JDSU does. But probably most important is that JDSU is the only one able to combine active and passive elements into "modules". This is just ramping up since the merger of UNPH and JDSI. And this seems to be welcomed by NT and LU. Note: Cisco is not yet much of a customer for JDSU. Q2. No knowledge of margins. But "modules" should command higher margins that individual widgets separately. Q3. Yes. The only area where JDSU may be behind currently is in undersea widget supply. But on the question of continuing need, suggest "not to worry" . Huge expanding market and JDSU is constrained by its ability to supply the market not demand by the market No sign that will change any time soon. Fiber use seems insatiable. Is it? Who knows. But I would recommend against betting on collapsing demand for the products JDSU supplies in the next 3 years at a minimum. And actually think the time frame is more like 5 to 7 years for an open field run. SDLI is good and will participate strongly. But JDSU is a king IMO at minimum. Note: As I have mentioned before I have a vested interest in JDSU remaining a king for use in my One,One,One game, but I have my doubts. JDSU may well have found a way to become more like a gorilla through a different way than the GG authors saw. IMO the closest ancient and honorable company similar to JDSU's strengths is Intel. So then the question is. What is Intel? I vote with Lindybill on that as a one time (in Intel's early days) Intel stockholder and observer since. Cha2 Hope others will weigh in on your questions - which are excellent.