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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (34764)	12/5/1999 11:19:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

You are right that the darling stocks will probably bounce back on any correction. My worry about buying in here is who will cause the next correction. It has been a while since a correction was caused by a "power" stock warning. Remember INTC in October 97? I can't help but wonder since CSCO's earnings were much much less than I expected this quarter if they will be the one. CSCO beat their estimate but it was done with smoke and mirrors. Actual earnings from sales were actually down, not up. They used every trick in the book to doctor them into a gain. No one cares until the games can not be done and the truth comes out. Remember how many quarters CPQ was able to hide thier losses? People here were pointing out CPQ's inventory back logs and forward sales for a year before the truth finally broke and it was hammered. ALl the while CPQ holders bashed the people that actually took the time to read the 10Qs. As you know I was holding CSCO when they reported and I was scared to death when I saw the numbers as I thought I was going to lose big on my calls. Well I obviously sold too early but I still believe that fundamentally I did the right thing. To be honest I didn't even erad SUNW's release this quarter but I will the next one. I believe they report again in January. Will they report earnings growth as fast as their doubling in stock price in just a couple months??? Doubtful. I guess I am just a lousy salesman and businessman. I am the type that when I sell a car, I tell the buyer everything that is wrong with it instead of painting over the rust and putting the 90 weight oil in the block to cover up the weird noises. <ggg> Don't get me wrong, I have lost on many a good fundamental stock and have gained on many lousy ones both on the long side. Just like the link a few posts before this one, I have owned companies that grow earnings faster than any of the current street darlings and watched them fall into oblivion or trade flat for years while stocks with slow growth but future promises go to the moon. Someday it will end but I won't trade on fundamentals anymore until the trend changes. AS you know I dart in and out of the high flyers, it is just I don't hold them too long. Heck I was looking this weekend at some that wont earn a penny for 10 years at least but I am also scared to death. The only way to make money now is to play this greater fool game. Sad but true. EDIT - Your presence has been requested on my message thread at my site. See message from KOMP Good Luck, Lee