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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JC Jaros who wrote (24026)	12/5/1999 5:15:00 PM
From: fuzzymath	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 64865

Technical analysis of individual stocks isn't what I do. I have considerable doubt about whether mathematical or other methods can be applied to an individual stock and yield better performance than a simple buy and hold approach. What I've modeled is the market indices. The Market is a very different thing--it's the sum total of all the events in our economy plus people's expectations merged into a single number, the index value at the end of each day. I did successfully apply a technical analysis after the 1987 crash, but I was trading a group of very similar stocks of highly regulated companies that had very low volatility (very conservative utilities). There, I found a method for comparative valuation of the stocks, and using a market-neutral approach I was able to very safely earn a 35% profit after commissions trading a group of stocks that moved within an 8% range between December 1987 and November 1988. By Nov 88 volatility had fallen enough that the commissions ate all the profits. And, then I needed the money to buy a house. So, I never went back to that. Possibly, with today's low commissions, the method would work. But maybe not, because utilities are becoming unregulated. As I said in my post in response to Lynn's Price/Sales questions, I don't think it's possible to really compare SUNW to most of its competition in terms of statistics. SUNW is unique, from my vantage point (having worked on a daily basis with their products and ideas for the past 6 years). My predictions for the next few months are based on my "Is there a January Effect?" study. I stay 100% fully invested every year at this time, because historically the market performs far better than any other period between November and January. As for why I like SUNW, yes, I can say that I like it's price pattern -- but that's nothing more than saying its relative strength is increasing. So, if I'm going to be in the market and bear the dips (which always make me feel ill -- I have kids to send through college soon!), I'd like to select a company I've heard of that is established, has profits, is embracing innovation, etc. Surely a more fundamentals-based approach than technical... I don't get your question "Why do moving objects continue to move?" I assume you're just bashing me? kfarnham