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To: agent99 who wrote (1605)12/6/1999 5:05:00 PM
From: TFF  Respond to of 2802
 
Web Portals Opening Doors to Asian Market

Online Sites Spring Up to Tap Lucrative, but Diverse, Community in U.S., Overseas

By CHING-CHING NI, Times Staff Writer

They are two Asian American men who both work on the Web.
But one is Korean and the other is Chinese, which ordinarily would make them unlikely to seek each other out as business partners in a world that keeps tight ethnic boundaries.
In cyberspace, however, Joe Cheon and Chin Yao are trying to break the barriers of difference and distance by creating a Pan-Asian Web portal, bringing together Asians from across the U.S and eventually around the globe.
"Offline they might have a problem communicating, but the online community all understands English," said Cheon, chief executive of Click2Asia, the Los Angeles-based Web site that he and Yao launched in October. "There are not many players out there. This market has huge potential."
The reasons may be subtle. Asian Americans are generally assumed to be on the technological cutting edge, but language, culture and geography have kept this large and diffuse community from taking full advantage of the digital revolution.
But the financial and commercial success of Web portals targeting women, Latinos, gays and teens has opened the floodgates for sites that cater to specific demographic areas.
For Asian Americans, the timing couldn't be better. The Asian online community is reaching critical mass, making it lucrative for Net entrepreneurs to forge unlikely alliances to capitalize on this new cyberturf.
"Yahoo is great, but it has a very mass-market appeal," said Steve Chin, a founder of one of the earliest--but now defunct--Asian American Web sites. "What people are searching for is more vertical and special-interest sites that go deep."
A range of Web sites are now targeting diverse segments of the Asian community: young Asian Americans who grew up in the U.S. and are searching for others with common interests; more recent immigrants looking for news and information about their home country; and English-speaking Asians on both sides of the Pacific seeking business opportunities.
Some portals are focusing on the U.S., while others are looking to expand to Asia as global players. All of them believe the Internet can help them transcend cultural and marketing limitations.
"The U.S. ethnic market represents one-third of the U.S. population and $1 trillion in annual purchasing power," said Web entrepreneur Benjamin Sun. "Buyers and sellers will want to know the best way to reach them. We can be that intermediary."
The former banker at Merrill Lynch knows firsthand about the growing pains facing ethnic Web portals. At 26, Sun is CEO of New York's Community Connect Inc., which runs AsianAvenue.com, a 3-year-old site focusing on young Asian Americans.
With more than 300,000 registered members, AsianAvenue holds bragging rights as the most-visited Asian American Web site. Users bond through AOL-like features, such as instant messages, chat rooms and discussion forums. But more important, AsianAvenue has lured billboard advertisers such as GM and Microsoft.
"The biggest hurdle we faced was that people didn't think Asian Americans saw themselves as a collective group," Sun said.
Even though Asian Americans are the fastest-growing ethnic group in the country, they make up only 3% of the population, according to the U.S. Census. As a result, some polls and surveys simply leave them out as statistically insignificant.
But in cyberspace, it's a different story.
A study by Cambridge, Mass.-based Forrester Research found that Asian American households are the most wired of any U.S. household. At 64%, the share of Asian Americans online is almost double that of Caucasian families at 34%, the study found.
Asian Americans are also most likely to shop and do product research electronically, spending more money online than any other racial group, according to Forrester. Perhaps even more attractive is their collective wealth. According to the 1997 U.S. Census, their income was 22% above the U.S. median of $45,249.
"This market is very, very interesting for Wall Street to look at," said Peter Chu, managing director of AsiaTech Ventures, a venture capital firm that invests in many Asian Internet start-ups, including Click2Asia. "It's getting the attention because it means dollars to the advertising people."
But race is only a secondary consideration, said Ekaterina O. Walsh, an analyst with Forrester.
"Asian Americans are online not because they are Asian Americans but because they are highly educated, very positive about technology and have the income to buy new technology," Walsh said. "That makes them a very attractive audience to advertisers."

Capturing Market Hasn't Been Easy
Translating the optimistic demographic into real value on the Net remains an uphill hike, since the community traditionally lacks a strong track record for marketing success. But that's not stopping young Internet entrepreneurs from jockeying for position, many with an eye toward the gold mine across the Pacific.
"Both those player pools are interested in [each other], said Rajeev Gupta, an analyst with Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong, referring to the Asian and Asian American markets. "Because you are targeting a culture, you can't differentiate by geography."
Some investors looking at a start-up's global potential prefer entrepreneurs who have cut their teeth in the U.S. market, said AsiaTech's Chu.
Steve Chin learned that the hard way. The former newspaper reporter launched San Francisco-based Web site Channel A in 1996 with content designed to create an online Asian American community. But the site never really took off and shut down last year, a victim of strategy clashes and a loss of financial backing after the Asian economic crisis.
With the lessons learned from his previous Web effort, Chin is planning a comeback. This time, he's joining forces with A Magazine, a decade-old, New York-based publication aimed at Asian Americans. Together they hope to create a Web site that has a better-focused audience and more relevant services, two of the pitfalls of Chin's last project.
"The market is wide open," Chin said. "Not only is there a critical mass of Asian Americans online, but also there is a critical mass of Asian Americans who identify as Asian Americans and realize why it's important to identify themselves this way."
The popularity of existing sites is evidence the community is ready to embrace the concept of Asian portals.
AsianAvenue, for example, registered a huge number of online volunteers to help an Asian leukemia victim who was looking for a rare bone marrow donor. In another instance, the site galvanized a community protest that forced a liquor company to drop one of its national ads that was considered racist.
As a sign of its growth potential, AsianAvenue is using its community model to reach other young ethnic markets. In September, it launched BlackPlanet.com, a portal for African Americans. A third site catering to Latinos is in the pipeline.
Many other Asian entrepreneurs, however, are casting their eyes beyond the U.S. border.
"People think of Asia as a huge market; actually it's a lot of diverse micro-markets," Chu said. "Asian Americans can be a great bridge to create a community of global Asians that share something in common, whether it's social issues, business or entertainment."
Joe Cheon saw the Internet's potential for bringing together a community four years ago when he launched KoreaLink.
Now 30, Cheon came up with the idea for his Web effort after seeing his neighbor's Internet business explode almost overnight. That company's name: EarthLink.
Cheon noticed how hard it was to find other Asians online and focused on linking up the Asian business community. But with no experience and a tiny audience unfamiliar with ethnic portals, Cheon was unable to attract investors and lost $300,000 of his own money.
Instead of abandoning the business, he shifted focus--offering chat, dating and special issues forums that allow users to build relationships and generate their own content.
"When we made it community-oriented, everybody came in," said Cheon. "Once you build up your community you can reach out to the business community."
Meanwhile, his future business partner, Chin Yao, was struggling to build a loyal online following with the Asian Buying Consortium, a successful offline buying club.
Yao had heard about Korea-Link's impressive network of nearly 200,000 Korean users from both South Korea and the U.S. So last year, Yao gave Cheon a cold call.
The two hit it off. Yao learned the secrets to a successful online presence, while Cheon found a way to tap Yao's strong reach into the Chinese American community that he, as a Korean American, had little access to.
Today, Click2Asia's office on Wilshire Boulevard is buzzing with incoming calls from advertisers, job seekers and potential partners.
"If we had Click2Asia during the Taiwan earthquake, we could have immediately united the global Chinese community, to send supplies and check the latest news," said Yao, 28. "With the Internet, for the first time we can break geographic boundaries, we can use English as a unifying language to bring together Asians in the global community."

Asian Market Is Huge--and Growing
The number of Internet users in Asia is projected to grow from 12 million this year to 90 million by 2003, according to Gartner Group. Goldman Sachs recently nearly tripled its own projection of the online Asian population to 202 million by 2003. The reason? Unlike in U.S households, many Asian accounts have multiple users.
"In the U.S. there are all these Asians, whether it's first or second generation, that all have some ethnic ties back home through a parent or grandparent," said Savio Chow, managing director of Yahoo in Asia. "The Internet will provide an easy way to form this virtual community, not just in the U.S. but to extend that virtual community back home."
In September, Yahoo launched YahooChina to target users inside China. In June, AOL acquired a 10% equity interest in China.com, the only Asian portal to go public in the U.S. After the World Trade Organization agreement between China and the U.S., stock in China.com shot up. On Friday, it rose an additional $10.19 to close at $119.69 on Nasdaq.
That success can be a boost to lesser-known brands.
"Big players make smaller players more motivated, even though they also create challenges," said Ya Li, CEO of Global Villager Inc., which in October founded DragonSurf, a New York-based bilingual portal featuring a popular dating and career database, as well as news and information about China. In its efforts to reach the 1.3 million Chinese who live outside their native country, DragonSurf is competing with industry heavyweight Sina.com, the largest Chinese-language portal with more than 1 million registered users.
But instead of offering distinct Web destinations for users in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, Li's DragonSurf wants to put all overseas Chinese on the same page.
"The Internet eliminated restrictions between time and space," Li said. "So we emphasize global exchange rather than separation."
Lacking the benefit of scale and powerful backers, most smaller start-ups must rely on private investors and advertising revenues. DragonSurf taps long-distance phone companies and major airlines and, like AsianAvenue, is thinking about capitalizing on its ability to conduct online polls and surveys that could attract job recruiters and market researchers.
"As the pie gets bigger, even if your slice is small, you can still maintain critical mass," said Mukesh Ahuja, CEO of Asia-Links, a Sunnyvale, Calif.-based portal that zeros in on businesses in Asian countries by offering financial news, job listings and travel information. Ahuja is also pushing for e-commerce opportunities, such as connecting suppliers with buyers and selling merchandise online.
Since the field is still considered in its infancy, analysts expect various models to emerge as the market takes its time to shake out a winner. That means smaller start-ups, too, could shape the future.
"It's going to be a dogfight," said Goldman Sachs' Gupta. "Differentiation is key."



To: agent99 who wrote (1605)12/6/1999 5:23:00 PM
From: TFF  Respond to of 2802
 
Secular Growth on the Net is Slowing(briefing forgets that high speed access will greatly increase useability and therefore ecommerce)
{BRIEFING.COM - Robert V. Green] Earlier in the summer, Briefing.com began pointing out the first warning signs of the slowdown in secular growth on the Internet. (See our Stock Briefs of June 28, October 14 and October 25 for full details.) Last week, Internet consultants Cyber Dialogue published the results of their study that showed that internet growth actually is slowing. Here's what it means.

Cyber Dialogue's Study
In brief, here are the results of Cyber Dialogue's study of users (which is limited to users in the United States):

3.9 million users went online for the first time in the first 6 months of 1999, compared to 12 million in the same period the prior year
The rate of growth of total internet users has slowed to 13%, versus 58% last year
Total population on the net, in the US, is 69 million adults
One-third of all people who have ever tried the internet see no use for it. This totals 27 million people.
If you are an internet aficionado, it is hard to believe someone would try the net and then turn away. But fear of computers is still a powerful stumbling block for many people. And comfort with computers is still necessary to use the internet.

Our own observations over the summer led us to believe that the internet growth in the US was slowing. Now that Cyber Dialogue's study also confirms this, we think it is time to begin to ponder what it means.

What It Means For Public Internet Companies
Much of the stock value in internet companies is based on the following line of thinking:

The internet is going to be huge! Therefore, internet companies will grow to be huge. Therefore, I should buy the stock of internet companies.

Anyone who followed this line of thinking, without any corresponding analysis of whether the stock already represents that huge future, were handsomely rewarded in 1997 and 1998. In 1999, some people had a rougher ride, particularly if they bought with new money. But recently, that line of thinking has been revived, and rewarded, particularly in the last two months.

Although many of today's investors have been criticized for not doing fundamental analysis, there really wasn't much needed, because revenues have been rising sharply, pretty much from the beginning.

And the mere fact that revenues have continued to rise has kept investor interest in internet stocks high. And, therefore, stock prices have stayed high.

But when a company that is supposed to be HUGE! reports a sequential decline in revenue, the entire line of thinking falls apart.

Then what happens?

We aren't sure what will happen will a company like Amazon.com (AMZN) or Yahoo! (YHOO) reports a sequential decline in revenue. Obviously it won't be good, but it is so hard to predict investor sentiment, it can't be known whether it causes sharp price reversals immediately.

Institutional investors tend to dump high growth stocks when they show signs of decline. Individual investors may not react this way, particularly if it means a loss.

But a sequential decline in revenue for any internet company can't be good. Particularly ecommerce net companies.

The companies, frankly, don't know what would happen either. But it is a safe bet that they would prefer not to find out anytime soon.

Therefore, revenue growth is the primary focus of internet companies. While important in all companies, internet companies can focus solely on revenue growth, without much concern for expenses. Provided they have enough cash.

The problem is that when secular growth slows, individual company growth becomes much harder. After all, if you have been on the internet for three years, but you haven't bought from Amazon.com yet, what is going to make you buy now? Or worse yet, if you bought three years ago, but haven't bought recently, what is going to make you buy?

How To Grow Revenues
There are only really four ways to grow revenues in any business.

Get new customers
Get existing customers to buy more
Acquire an existing business
Start a new line of business
When secular growth is strong, it is a lot easier to get new customers. For most internet companies, the steady stream of new internet users has been the driving factor for revenue growth. And there is no question that the internet's rate of growth has been faster than any other new media's.

But if secular growth slows, then the other three ways to grow revenue become more important. Unfortunately, the other ways are much more expensive than getting new customers.

The Christmas Season, and Beyond
Expectations are high for this Christmas online shopping season. There is no question that the total online shopping dollars for Q4 will be higher than any other online Christmas.

But then what happens?

All retailers have seasonality. Just look at the revenue curves of even the greatest retailers, such as Wal-Mart. Typically, retailers show seasonal declines in Q1 of as much as 15-25%. Wal-Mart shows seasonal Q1 decline of 15%, on average, and it is the growth king of the retail industry.

Therefore, with secular growth rates declining, it is reasonable to expect ordinary retail patterns to start to appear in internet ecommerce companies. Companies that have been around the longest are likely to see it first.

At Briefing.com, we aren't sure yet who will be the first to show a sequential decline. We also aren't sure what the reaction will be when it happens. But we are becoming more certain that isn't as far off as most people believe.

Earnings reports for Q4 will start as early as the second week of January, which is only about five weeks away. Earnings reports for Q1 will start in April, 2000.

That might seem like a long time off, right now, but the stock market always looks ahead.

Investors should also.



To: agent99 who wrote (1605)12/7/1999 7:30:00 AM
From: TFF  Respond to of 2802
 
Wireless phone firms ride a wave on Wall Street
By Corey Grice
Staff Writer, CNET News.com
December 6, 1999, 5:05 p.m. PT

Investors are driving wireless industry stocks to new highs as the prospects for wireless data services improve and handset sales take off.

Shares in Finnish wireless phone firm Nokia closed at a new 52-week high today as several investment banks raised their ratings on the company. Nokia said it expects sales to rise as much as 40 percent next year during an analyst meeting late last week.

Shares of Sweden's Ericsson and U.S.-based Motorola also surged to new 52-week highs today on new analyst reports that highlighted the industry's growth prospects.

The gains, coupled with Qualcomm's year-long climb and AT&T's decision to issue a wireless tracking stock, serve to highlight the market boom for all things wireless and the potential for new mobile Net revenue, according to analysts.

Falling service prices, increased worldwide network coverage and faster-than-expected phone sales--particularly Web-ready handsets--have contributed to the recent boom, analysts said.

"What's driving both the handset manufacturers and service providers in stock price is the realization that the wireless networks really can and will serve as high-speed Internet platforms," said Elliott Hamilton, senior vice president of wireless for Strategis Group, a telecommunications market research firm.

For example, a study released today estimates there will be nearly 24 million wireless data users by 2003, according to Cahners In-Stat Group. The availability of newer, high-speed transmission technologies will drive wireless data usage over the next 18 to 24 months, Cahners said.

The research firm estimated wireless data services will be used by 9 million business customers in three years, up from just 784,000 in 1999.

Many analysts see the wireless adoption rate growing quickly as fees fall across the globe and networks are rapidly constructed, particularly in developing nations such as Mexico, Brazil and the Philippines.

"It's taken the world 15 years to get to 428 million subscribers, but it's going to take it only five more years to more than double that," Hamilton said. That's what the stock prices are reflecting."

Hamilton said he expects 1 billion worldwide mobile phone subscribers by 2004. But Nokia told analysts last week that it expects 1 billion wireless users across the globe by the end of 2002, a year earlier than the company's previous estimates.

Wireless research firm Herschel Shosteck Associates has raised its phone sales projections three times this year.

"At the beginning of the year we expected 205 million handsets to be sold in 1999. We're now at 280 million to 300 million and the only reason why it wouldn't go to the high end of that range is a shortage of components," said company president Herschel Shosteck.

Many investment banks issued revised financial forecasts for the wireless equipment makers today. Merrill Lynch raised its growth rate projections for the industry and ratcheted price targets higher for Nokia and Ericsson, reiterating a "buy" rating for both stocks.

"Nokia's analyst meeting last Friday was very positive and more aggressive than we had expected. The outlook for the industry as a whole is improving, particularly in the long term," Merrill analysts Anita Farrell and Adnaan Ahmad wrote in a report today.

Nokia shares gained nearly 9 percent to finish at 176.44 today. Motorola added more than 5 percent to close at 130.64, while Ericsson received a nearly 8 percent boost to end the day at 59.31. Qualcomm stock also added nearly 3 percent today.

In addition to the high-growth rates among first-time mobile phone users, analysts say so-called replacement rates are rising quickly. Many existing cell phone users are buying newer phones with the latest functions and abilities, analysts said. Shosteck estimates the replacement rate has jumped to 40 percent from just 17 percent not long ago.

"Nokia, of all the phone makers, is best positioned to take advantage of this because they have more models and because of their buying power, they have access to more components," Shosteck said.

The rise in handset sales has lead firms to scramble for phone parts, according to analysts. The larger mobile phone manufacturers, such as Nokia, Ericsson and Motorola, have been able to weather a shortage in certain components, particularly batteries and displays, analysts said.