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To: Benkea who wrote (34769)	12/5/1999 7:49:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Dow euphoria tests dizzy limits afr.com.au Wall Street, By Alan Deans Whether it is a burst of rational exuberance or just millennium madness, the sharp rally last Friday in US share prices is focusing renewed attention on Wall Street as the year 2000 clock ticks down. Labour statistics, which showed strong jobs growth but benign wages, sparked a 247.12-point surge in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which ended the week at 11,286.18 and within grasp of a record. The S&P 500 also hit a new high, at 1433.3, as did the Nasdaq Composite, at 3520.63. It now seems possible that the S&P 500, the measure by which most fund managers gauge their performance, will climb by more than 20 per cent for the fifth year running - a record. It was all too much for one noted Wall Street bear. "The technology, internet and telecommunications craze has gone parabolic in what is one of the great, if not the greatest, manias of all time," said Morgan Stanley's Mr Barton Biggs. "There is no question that the internet and the communications revolution are transforming events; the issue is profitability and what stock prices have already discounted. We live and invest in a momentum-following world, but in my view rational investors should begin gradually to reduce their holdings in these three areas." But it's all going to plan, according to one of the Street's great bulls. "We hold to our millennium melt-up case," said Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette's Mr Tom Galvin. "A liquidity surge in early 2000 will push the Dow to 12,000 and the S&P 500 to 1580 by March, or 10-15 per cent gains over the next four months." The buying remains centred on technology stocks, in particular internet players and communications providers. This is partly because individual investors remain focused on companies such as Microsoft and Cisco Systems, which have given them strong returns in the past. But there is also a rotation into a new wave of internet and wireless telephony groups that promise higher growth. Nokia and Motorola are strongly in favour because of forecasts of consumer demand for new generation wireless broadband services. But so, too, are smaller information providers such as Freeserve and Tellular. The re-emergence of such investing mania is of concern to some people, not simply because prices are running ahead of fundamentals. Merrill Lynch's global strategist, Mr Trevor Grantham, is concerned that it is resulting in a renewed burst in consumer confidence. "Investor sentiment has become optimistic in a very short space of time," he said. "The US equity market was over sold last month, but the call/put ratio has risen rapidly and is already close to over-bought territory. Given the strong global backdrop, the Federal Reserve Board is likely to resume hiking rates as soon as Y2K concerns allow." The Fed has pumped up liquidity in recent times to help allay any millennium bug problems but fears are that it will act quickly in the new year to suck the cash back out of the system. The investment surge predicted by Mr Galvin could well eventuate but a tighter money supply and higher interest rates threaten to nip it in the bud quickly. This week will provide several new tests for the investment euphoria. Tuesday sees the release of the third quarter productivity numbers, which are expected to show growth of 5 per cent compared with 6 per cent previously. Thursday will bring October's wholesale inventories, which should be up by 0.3 per cent, compared with 0.5 per cent previously. The end of the week looks like being the greatest test, however, when the US producer price index is slated for a gain of 0.2 per cent.

To: Benkea who wrote (34769)	12/5/1999 7:55:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Home Sales Up 7.8 Percent, Median Price Rose 11.9 Percent in October, C.A.R. Reports 03:12 p.m Nov 29, 1999 Eastern LOS ANGELES, Nov. 29 /PRNewswire/ -- Sales of existing homes in California in October posted a 7.8 percent increase and the median home price rose 11.9 percent compared to the same period a year ago, according to the California Association of REALTORS(R) and Transamerica Intellitech, a real estate information service. "The housing market in California continues to outpace the nation," said C.A.R. President Richard F. Gaylord. "California homeowners are benefiting from the largest year-to-year median price appreciation in more than 10 years." Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 674,940 in October at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 Multiple Listing Services (MLS) statewide. Statewide home resale activity was up 7.8 percent from the 626,380 sales pace recorded in October 1998. Resale activity posted a decrease of 4.9 percent in October 1999 compared to September 1999. The statewide sales figure represents what the total number of homes sold during 1999 would be if sales maintained the October pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales. The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during October 1999 was $218,160, an 11.9 percent increase over the $194,960 median for October 1998, C.A.R. reported. The October 1999 median price decreased 1.0 percent compared to September 1999. C.A.R., in conjunction with Transamerica Intellitech's MetroScan(R) software and information product, reported more than 80 percent of California cities and communities showed an increase in their respective median home prices from a year ago. Highlights of C.A.R.'s resale housing figures for October 1999: -- C.A.R.'s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in October 1999 was 4.4 months, down from 5.3 months compared to the same period a year ago. The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate. -- Thirty-year fixed mortgage interest rates averaged 7.89 percent during October 1999, up from 6.71 percent in October 1998, according to the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. Adjustable mortgage interest rates averaged 6.31 percent in October 1999, up from 5.38 percent in October 1998. -- The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home was 35 days in October 1999, down from 44 days for the same period a year ago. Regional MLS sales and price information is contained in the charts that accompany this press release. Regional sales data is not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales. The MLS median price and sales data for detached homes is generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS(R) throughout the state. MLS median price and sales data is based on a survey of 64 associations. The median price for both detached homes and condominiums represents closed escrow sales. "Despite higher interest rates compared to a year ago, demand continues to be strong in all segments of the housing market," said Leslie Appleton-Young, C.A.R.'s vice president and chief economist. In a separate report covering more localized statistics generated by C.A.R. and Transamerica Intellitech's MetroScan(R) service, 271 of 331 California cities and communities showed an increase in their respective median home prices from a year ago. Using the MetroScan(R) database, median home prices are generated from new and existing condominium and single-family closed escrow sales. These localized MetroScan(R) statistics are based on county records data rather than MLS information. Note: Large changes in local median home prices typically indicate both local home price appreciation, and often, large shifts in the composition of housing market activity. Some of the variations in median home prices may be exaggerated due to compositional changes in housing demand. The MetroScan(R) tables listing median home prices in 331 California cities within 24 counties is accessible through the C.A.R. Web site: car.org. Among the highlights of the October localized data collected by C.A.R. and Transamerica Intellitech: -- Statewide, the 10 cities and communities with the highest median home prices in California during October 1999 were: Atherton, $1,850,000; Los Altos Hills, $1,690,000; Monte Sereno, $1,550,000; Hillsborough, $1,122,500; Woodside, $1,000,000; Saratoga, $974,000; La Jolla, $956,590; Los Altos, $838,500; Coronado, $775,000; Belvedere/Tiburon, $750,000. -- Statewide, the 10 cities and communities with the greatest median home price increases in October 1999 compared to the same period a year ago were: Twentynine Palms, La Jolla, Sausalito, Solana Beach, Atherton, Laguna Hills, Riverside, Coronado, Monte Sereno, Lake Forest. Sacramento-based Transamerica Intellitech is a leading provider of information and software solutions for real estate industry professionals throughout the U.S. Its parent, Fortune 500 company Transamerica Corporation, is one of the world's largest financial services companies. Transamerica has provided specialized financial, life insurance and real estate products and services since 1928. The California Association of REALTORS(R) (http://www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States, with more than 90,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles. C.A.R. releases may also be retrieved by calling the PR Newswire fax-on-demand service at: 1-800-758-5804, ext. 131489. OCTOBER 1999 REGIONAL SALES AND PRICE ACTIVITY* Regional and Condo Sales Data Not Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent Percent Percent Change Change Change Change in in in Sales in Sales Price Price Activity Activity Median from from from from Price Sept. 99 Oct.98 Sept.99 Oct. 98 Calif. (sf) $218,160 -1.0 11.9 -4.9 7.8 Calif. (condo) $155,490 -4.7 2.0 -7.8 17.4 Region Central Vly. $122,580 -2.7 6.6 -9.0 11.6 High Desert $ 81,720 -1.8 -14.5 1.2 85.8 Los Angeles $195,060 -2.9 2.5 -22.0 0.8 Monterey $350,450 -1.4 25.3 -0.4 8.0 Nor. Calif. $167,500 -0.1 8.6 -10.0 8.0 Nor. Wine Co. $248,320 -2.3 16.2 -12.2 -10.0 Orange Co. $284,130 -0.8 7.1 -8.3 -7.0 Palm Springs/ Lower Desert $139,730 13.1 7.9 -11.5 23.4 Riverside/S.B. $130,950 -2.6 5.6 -10.6 -21.9 Sacramento $131,760 -3.1 3.5 -11.7 13.9 San Diego $234,930 -1.5 12.9 -3.0 3.9 S.F. Bay $368,880 1.8 15.8 -7.7 16.6 San Luis Obispo $225,810 7.2 18.6 1.8 -7.4 Sta. Barbara $279,170 -18.0 31.9 0.0 -3.6 Santa Clara $397,530 -4.5 11.4 1.6 29.9 Ventura $264,700 0.9 14.4 -8.8 -8.2 * Based on closed escrow sales of single-family, detached homes only (no condos). Reported month-to-month changes in sales activity may overstate actual changes because of the small size of individual regional samples. Movements in sales prices should not be interpreted as measuring changes in the cost of a standard home. Prices are influenced by changes in cost and changes in the characteristics and size of homes actually sold. ** Due to the small sample size in these areas, prices and activity changes may be overemphasized. sf = single-family, detached home Source: California Association of REALTORS(R) A comparison of median home prices by region for October 1999 and October 1998. October October 1999 1998 California (sf) $218,160 $194,960 California (condo) $155,490 $152,480 Region Central Valley $122,580 $115,030 High Desert $ 81,720 $95,560 Los Angeles $195,060 $190,300 Monterey $350,450 $279,640 Nor. California $167,500 $154,240 Nor. Wine Country $248,320 $213,790 Orange County $284,130 $265,210 Palm Springs/Lwr. Desert $139,730 $129,460 Riverside/San Bernardino $130,950 $124,050 Sacramento $131,760 $127,340 San Diego $234,930 $208,090 San Francisco Bay $368,880 $318,640 San Luis Obispo $225,810 $190,370 Santa Barbara $279,170 $211,670 Santa Clara $397,530 $356,990 Ventura $264,700 $231,290 Source: California Association of REALTORS(R) SOURCE California Association of REALTORS