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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (5303)	12/6/1999 10:46:00 AM
From: Graeme Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10293

>> I don't think you can short Linux companies across the board. You probably could for the pure plays :), Red hat seems to stand there alone (this weeks IPO's excepted). It is amazing to compare Red Hat to Corel. Corel has been accused of been a blatant P&D, running from 2 to 20 in a few weeks on LINUX hype. However, on the other side of the Corel coin, even at the peak of its mania it was still only valued at one tenth of RHAT. And that is for a company who's version of LINUX is supposedly outselling Red Hats 4 to 1. That number may be artificially high due initial demand, but the reviews I've read place Corel's version as the most advanced. I do agree with you that within the LINUX field stock picking is neccesary. I think also timing will also be a very important factor. At the moment anything that offers an alternative to microsoft's OS is running. However this artificial inflation will eventually dry up when reality sets in. Whether it is allowed to use dirty practices or not, Microsoft (and SUN etc.) are extremely competitive companies that will continue to dominate the OS universe. LINUX will never be a viable desktop operating system for anyone but a few techo-geeks. It will remain in its niche (a huge niche) of servers and especially internet servers. While a huge niche, trying to make money and by giving away free software and competing directly with SUN, HP, IBM is about as much fun as betting on Ajbekistan to win a clean sweep of gold at the next Olympics. The only risk with RHAT is that of all overpriced companies. They can use there market cap to attract serious high level managers and to gobble up smaller profitable companies.