Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sector Investor who wrote (17301)	12/6/1999 9:28:00 AM
From: Bruce L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42804

Re: "Gigabit Multimode Extender" & Fiber Driver Line of Products Very simply, I am stupid when it comes to describing technology, so I will apologize in advance for this post, especially in that Sector has already covered it so well. But, like Sector, I too was particularly impressed by what I learned about this product during the plant tour from an MRVC manager named Jonathan. The fiber driver multiples the capacity of a single optical cable as much as four-fold. In that a single additional fiber optic connection costs about $100,000, the cost effectiveness of fiber drivers is obvious. Jonathan said that they are basically selling all that they can produce and that the margins are good. In the case of the "Gigabit Multimode Extender" there is no other company with the abilty to make this product,i.e., no competition, and the company is very excited about it. As Sector explained already (but it bears repetition) normal gigabit is limited to 550 meters from the nearest POP, but the Extender expands this to 2 kilometers. Diana, MRVCs IR rep, separately mentioned how impressed the company is with the potential of fiber driver, so much so that they intend to break it out as a distinct NBase division. Diana mentioned that in recent months MRVC has been visited by a number of brokerage firms highly interested in getting the IPO business from MRVC. She stated that the company is aware of the importance of getting the MRVC story out to the investment community and would "tie" any contract for the IPO business with a requirement that the broker publicize material about MRVC. This was my first annual meeting. I came away with the impression that this is an austere, spartan company that does not waste any money at all on fancy buildings or offices. Yet according to another manager, "Ken", employee morale is excellent and employee turnover is minimal, around 1%. Very impressive to me. Bruce

To: Sector Investor who wrote (17301)	12/6/1999 10:39:00 AM
From: James Calladine	Respond to of 42804

BUSINESS PLANNING: To everyone who attended the Meeting and has commented-- many thanks again. From afar, and for discussion purposes,I offer a whimsical strategic methodology that MRVC could consider, and maybe, in some form employ. I call it the BROOD HEN ADOPTION PLAN. I see MRVC as a technology development BROOD HEN that needs to find rich, happy successful homes for its chicks, endlessly into the future. STEPS: 1) Hire a truly competent financial strategist/business planner for MRVC staff 2) Have him/her research VC firms that have had the hottest Communications IPO's like Juniper with insanely high stock prices. 3) Select the top 5 VC firms based on their IPO relationships, their overall success and their ability to arrange institutional support for MRVC. Decide who specifically they want to work with. Employ them. 4) Take each of MRVC's potential IPO spinoffs. Look at what already existing technology (in already on the market IPO companies) would complement and function synergistically with MRVC's technology. 5) SELL MRVC's technology(for cash & shares) to such(Juniper-like) company based on the technology's profit potential and related to the insanely high PE granted (to them) by the market AT THIS PRESENT TIME (which may not last forever!) 6) Retain the right in MRVC to sell an OEM version of the product through its already existing distribution channels. These suggestions are made based on the assumption that: 1) MRVC has (and will continue to have) great technology 2) The true wealth is the continuing exploitation of that technology 3) The technology can be synergistically linked to other new offerings of others that already have IPO'd their shares 4) It is better to be a profoundly productive BROOD HEN who puts most of her chicks in great homes than a worn out mother hen who has to: a) build the nest b) lay the eggs c) find money to buy a car to visit the market d) set up shop in the market e) etc, etc. My thesis is that you can have a great and very productive brood hen if you do not wear her out with activities other than: 1) lay great eggs 2) hatch them 3) put the chicks out for adoption What do people think? And Noam, it you use these ideas, you are welcome. After the first deal, maybe you could send me a complimentary 100 shares, or maybe 1,000 shares? Oh hell, your choice! If the organization is run as frugally as it sounds, I may end up with 10! What do people think? Best wishes, Jim

To: Sector Investor who wrote (17301)	12/6/1999 12:12:00 PM
From: J. Conley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42804

Sector, Only time will tell. And yes, I will hold on to my skepticism (not necessarily about the stock price) until I see real numbers reporting real earnings. I think everyone gets what I'm saying about distinguishing the technology from actual sales and earnings. It's quite amazing in this current market environment that this stock isn't at 100, for it is PROSPECTS that this market is awarding. Delay could mean a change in the overall market conditions. Although I am 100% long now, and am along for the ride, this market has very little room for error. Believe it or not, there is always potential for a bear market and a contraction of the overall economy. My personal view is that members of the federal reserve are much more concerned about a market bubble than they are capable of saying in public. There thinking might be, "what's wrong with putting the brakes on a runaway market if you can prevent a serious and perhaps protracted downturn in the economy that could occur later as a result?" Will it lead to more rate hikes in an election year, I don't know. As always, my opinions only.

To: Sector Investor who wrote (17301)	12/7/1999 1:31:00 AM
From: pat mudge	Respond to of 42804

I don't see it. Does anyone else? Their product level moves appear VERY LIKELY to be successful - and they are all in HUGE future markets. No matter how great the technology, there's a chasm between cutting-edge products and succeeding in the market. Being a new investor, I feel like a junior senator whose job is to listen more than speak so I'll confine my comments to questions, not judgments. * Who heads up marketing and what strengths weaknesses does he/she have? This could be the co's Achilles heel. * What strategic alliances are in place and how can they be leveraged? * Who are potential competitors in each of the exciting markets you've been discussing? (Good to challenge every assumption re: "no competitors.") * What advances could leapfrog any of the above? (Thinking of Zuma's products.) * What about a well-defined business plan? Definitely needed considering the nurturing-spin-off model is so little understood on the Street. I came away from the meeting and tour more impressed than I thought I'd be, but considering management was preaching to the choir, I'm trying to step back and look at what wasn't said. Great technology allows you a seat at the table. To win the game you have to execute. It was a privilege to meet you and the others at the meeting. Your contributions to the thread are invaluable. Hopefully next year we'll tour the new facilities and see them working at capacity. Thanks again for your excellent analysis. Pat