Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Cave who wrote (56144)	12/6/1999 10:32:00 AM
From: marc chatman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

It didn't get colder in the Northeast. It was 70 here yesterday in the snowbelt -- golf weather. We should have 6 feet of snow by now. Forecast is for a couple days of colder temps (still not very cold by normal standards, and then warmer weather later in the week. I thought the last two years were amazing in terms of mild winters, but they don't even come close to this year -- so far.

To: Jon Cave who wrote (56144)	12/6/1999 11:12:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

<Why is gas "DOWN" to $2.27....> Imho, that point is the entire point here. Actually it is two fold. Is the glass half empty, or half full ? Is $2.27 gas = bad ? regardless of how much it has retraced - people; how can $2.27 mcf Nat Gas be "bad" ? - it "IS" a historically OUTSTANDING PRICE ! 1. That $2.27 mcf Nat Gas is a price to be nearly euphoric about over the last few years. $2.27 Gas is fundamentally supportive in the right "sentiment" environment of ALL TIME HIGHS in these stocks with crude where it is ! That is what amazes me.... look at the recent past in these E&P stocks - $1.75-$2.10 mcf gas for the most part of late. Now, we even have the flip side of hedging coming around to the positive side for many companies as they will finally be hedged well "above" market prices for the coming qtrs potentially. Yet, they keep selling off to levels of where they were realizing $1.85ish gas & $14 crude oil. I have to make a large bet on that irrational anomaly. 2. We should be celebrating the fact that these E&P stocks never reflected $3 nat gas in their shareprices - primarially because so few companies realized prices anywhere near that. The shareprices here are reflective of $1.85-$1.95 Nat Gas & $16-$18 crude oil. I don't know if the market is discounting these E&P's to these levels because they expect those price levels, or if it is merely a cashing out to jump aboard the NASDQ mo-mo train and a little pre-Y2K cash raising...? If the market is wrong; (which they are) and $2.25+ Gas & $20+ crude oil sustains itself through 2000; we have 50% to 100% upside virtually across the board in E&P land. This sector is being dramatically affected by the complete withdrawl of the momenteum money and the expectations that OPEC will open the spigots soon & flood the world with oil - that current prices can not be sustained etc. Never have I seen such a disparity between supply & demand fundamentals, the actual flow of cash from such to the bottomline, the very positive nearterm bottomline expectations, actual commodity prices and sharprices. Not much more to say; I think this is a story all about the DOW & NASDQ runs here. I do not think that this stops untill the XMAS season is over - there are simply too high of expectations for e-tailing etc. Come Jan-March however; there has to be a near 20% market correction imho. The Fed has their hands tied in raising rates before year end - because of Y2K; so the market runs uninhibited untill the FED starts hiking rates - and they will imho. We may drift along in a rangebound fashion untill the DOW & NASDQ shakes out - because we simply seem unable to move out of this present range without the inflow of the momenteum players. I simply dont see them abandoning ship untill the Fed "can" potentially stop the music and that will not be untill Jan. onward... Buying UPR - making it my #1 holding here, building NBL - simply an anomaly within $1ish of a 5 year low !?!?!? with gas prices here ??!? - NBL is near a 5 year low with gas prices near where they were at its 5 year high ?!?! - now, is that an anomaly, or what ? - I'll take that bet... OEI still real cheap, PXD, XTO , FST... again; on the small cap vs. large cap arguement. Some of the very oversold small caps can move the first 30% faster potentially, but when you can imho; safely begin to margin some large caps here; you have more liquidity, greater institutional interest, the potential for the momenteum sector players who gravitate to the "names" in the large caps as suppport. Also, these large caps have the same, if not greater % rise to their prior support levels. Given the margin factor, in addition to the other advantages; I simply fail to see ANY reason to dance the dance of risk with these small caps with their balance sheet & liquidity issues in this environment. ... but, there is no one road to the top. Good Luck all - I am starting some new business projects that will keep me away from computer access during the day (I'll pause here for applause from the anklebiters (VBG)... So good luck all - I'll still drop in some evenings, or occassionally during the day. Could be a bit boring thru year end - as I see nothing stopping the DOW/NASDQ game, since the Fed has its hands tied with Y2K thru year end and untill that game ends - we need a major upside event catalyst to get us going - and I do not see one on the horizon, other than something driving crude thru $30. Our "time" may not arrive prior to a Nationwide Arctic Blast, or a Fed Hike... PS - lying in wait for that potential SLB shareholder generated selloff in RIG - come back to that $22-4ish level and I'll take that as my personal Xmas gift - putting a load into both the trading & longterm drawer.