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Technology Stocks : BEA Systems (BEAS) - Undiscovered Growth Stock -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (956)	12/8/1999 4:26:00 PM
From: William Epstein	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2477

To all who believe that this stock is insanely overvalued. What is overvalued? By traditional measuring tools? Those tools were designed for established companies with semi mature or mature businesses. How can you calculate high growth or unlimited growth potential especially, when no one knows what it is? That is where these tools fail. So what multiple can we use. Price/Sales maybe? True there are some really ridiculously priced stocks out there like Amazon. However, P/E ratios don't mean much when a company is growing at 50-100% per annum. How do we value future business potential when valuing stock such as this? The big money is always made in the stock market by investing in the burgeoning new industries that will become the cornerstones of the future economic system. GM, Chrysler, Ford, IBM, U.S. Steel, American Airlines, MCI, etc. So it has been and so it is. When they broke up Standard Oil it became Exxon, Texaco, Mobil Standard Oil of Calf. etc. What would the original Standard Oil stock be worth today. Ma Bell? What would it be worth today? Could anyone have really measured the potential for these stocks before their breakup? However, new industries were created by the breakups and new value was created too.. Photoman Bill

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (956)	12/12/1999 5:38:00 AM
From: fatty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2477

well, relative to, what about Oracle? Oracle is $120B, BEAS is $9B. Anyone ever done any sizeable application knows that the two components you can't mess with is database and middleware. I believe in what about 3 years, middleware will be as big as database. If BEAS can dominate the middleware market like Oracle does in database, it may well be another Oracle. Oracle went from $20 in Jan 97 to $80 now, assuming the same rate, it will be $320 in jan 03 or about $480B. Even if BEAS turns out to be half an Oracle, it will easily enjoy a market cap of $240B, which can be accomplished by a 3 years increase of 500%, 300%, 200%. ---- " But despite the recent run-up, Wendell Laidley,an analyst with Credit Suisse First Boston, says the stock still trades at a discount to comparable shares." That's the kind of thing analysts say when trying to explain how a stock that is insanely overvalued by any historical measure is really a good buy -- there are others that are even more insanely overvalued! What comparable shares is he talking about? Tibco?