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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric Jacobson who wrote (12170)	12/6/1999 12:13:00 PM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 54805

Re i2, JDSU, shiny pebbles, and so forth: There has been extensive discussion of i2, supply chain management, and the entire B2B sector (and the gorilla, king, and godzilla potential of companies within it) over on the "Godzilla" thread: Subject 30511 I strongly suggest that anyone interested go over and read through the last few hundred posts there to get up to speed on the discussions. For i2, read BB, Teflon, pala; there are also some links to i2-related stuff in posts I made a couple of weeks ago. There is no need to go over basic ground here again, IMO. Re JDSU's king/gorilla status: personally I agree with Franq, but I'm open to having my mind changed at some point down the road if it becomes clear that there are high switching costs for JDSU's customers and high barriers to entry for its competitors. What is clear already, however--again IMO--is that this discussion has gotten stuck in a bit of a rut, and that for anyone to make a new contribution to it they'll have to know a hell of a lot about both GGing and JDSU. Re Cha2's comment on "shiny pebbles," I strongly, if respectfully, disagree. Cha2, the term "shiny pebble" does not imply falsity or fakery; it just means that gold and pyrite (or diamonds and SiC, for Creetins!) look alike from a distance, or early in their life-cycles (to mix metaphors shamelessly). Yes, buying companies early that eventually become gorillas or kings is far more profitable than waiting until they are officially anointed as such. But it is also much riskier. The proper question to ask is not whether you got into some of our G&K companies early, but whether at the same time you also got into other promising companies that ultimately crashed and burned. Only some here (Franq, Lindy, some other purists) are entirely averse to taking any positions in SPs; many of the rest of us do so (in small amounts, at least, according to Apollo's survey). But in doing so we are being greedy and risk-acceptant. By retaining the (admittedly pejorative) SP label for non-G&Ks, we remind ourselves that we are technically violating, rather than respecting, the rules of the game. tekboy/Ares@toomanyholdingsalready.com

To: Eric Jacobson who wrote (12170)	12/6/1999 2:28:00 PM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Yes, the original manual did begin with the gorilla game in Supply Chain Management. I've loaned my original out to a friend who I hope 'joins us'. I convinced him to purchase Qualcomm and Gemstar as his first holdings with price entry points of Qualcomm at 173 and Gemstar at 70 - so he thinks I'm a genius. Not to worry - I gave him all your names! Therefore, I only have the revised manual in my household. Not to worry, I can still sleep at night with the original out on loan. For all practical purposes, i2 seemingly has emerged from the SCM tornado as a leader based on their revenues and growth figures. Remember, this is a niche market and within the enterprise application arena, a gorilla can exist with a market share in the range of 30 - 40%. I have made plenty of posts on the other board that are geared towards i2's 'other products and portal' in the B2B space. I have made posts here concerning i2's market share in the SCM space. I believe I fit it into the category of a double edged sword as an investment. The SCM side and now the B2B side. Then, this happens today: RESEARCH ALERT-Manugistics upped to buy,$28 target NEW YORK, Dec 6 (Reuters) - SoundView Technology Group analyst Steven Kohn said Monday he raised the rating on Manugistics Group Inc. (NasdaqNM:MANU - news) to buy from hold and set a $28 per share price target. -- Shares of Manugistics were up 3-7/16 trading at 22 on the Nasdaq stock market. -- Kohn said earnings estimates for Manugistics remains unchanged at a loss of $1.35 for fiscal 1999, a loss of 21 cents for fiscal 2000, and a loss of 21 cents for fiscal 2001. I just don't get it. It was upgraded on December 2 by Banc of America as well. I don't even follow Manugistics any more, but perhaps I should revisit the news and dig around to see what's going on. Could it be that in this market even the dogs are going to run. Uh oh..... Maybe Peoplesoft is shopping again to add to their Red Pepper. Here's the 'not so compelling' reason Banc of America gave for its upgrade of MANU. siliconinvestor.com Should we send that analyst a copy of the manual? The chart is interesting and you can see in 1998 when it appeared that i2 was emerging as the dominant player: siliconinvestor.com Regardless, i2 is now a 'double edged sword' prepared to grow revenues and earnings from more than the SCM base product. I don't want to bore any others by going on, but if you search the i2 thread as well as the GG in the eWorld thread, you will find what you are looking for - I hope. BB