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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (56164)	12/6/1999 1:10:00 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

JQP, did you notice that oil is closing in on 27? <eom>

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (56164)	12/6/1999 1:38:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

jims your chart from yahoo explains quite a bit here...http://quicken.excite.com/investments/charts/?symbol=hse+oei+sfy+upr+xto&period=YTD&charttype=HIST&othersymbols=&sp500=on We keep wondering - why, how, how much further can these sell off ? Well the answer is, that there is still substantial profits to be taken here in both the OSX & E&P's as your chart demonstrates. Add to that, the tax loss selling for those who jumped on the Aug-Sept momenteum move. It does NOT take a psychic to understand; that the Oilpatch has gone as far as commodity prices and energy funds/traders & "we" can take it. We need and must have the sector rotation from the momenteum crowd before we move - period. This "reality" is beyond any serious arguement. The traditional oilpatch fund managers, investors are buying here - but the momenteum crowd is exiting here, if they have not allready. That we are not seeing huge volume here is a benefit. As long as the DOW & NASDQ have the major mo-mo, there is no reason for us to breakout here - excepting some major event. A really powerfull policy announcement from OPEC, crude spiking thru $30 etc. Perhaps another 2 weeks here of strong API drawdowns - perhaps a 10M boe draw from last week thru the next 2 weeks; pre- XMAS ? We need the weather to change sentiment, we need Nat Gas to bounce - and without it; we waffle here... because that will bring "some" momenteum back to the sector - but, the big move is not happening untill the merry-go round stops on the DOW & NASDQ. But, the good news is the buying opps that are here. Time to buy, sit and just stay focused on the supply & demand fundamentals - the still positive NG price environment, the positive NG hedging position of the E&P's and just wait untill "sentiment" catches up with the still outstanding fundamentals. Bottomline: patience... Come on down UPR - break into the $11's... OEI - fwiw; has no Nat Gas hedges in place as of Sept 30th .... good & bad. Actually with present market prices they will realize better prices than they have anytime in the last 15 - 18 mos ! and "if" we finally see winter and prices bounce - they nail near full price realization. Looks real cheap here to me. Their no hedges are a winner all the way down to $1.97ish actually when compared to prior price realizations of $1.92 for 1st 9 mos. of 1998, $2.02 for first 9 mos of 1999. $2.27 here is a 10% increase over the highest period of the last 2 years for OEI and the stock sells off 30% ? This is what amazes me here, the Street is ignoring the actual bottomline fundamentals. OEI can potentially show a huge upside to cash flows and earnings here in the coming qtrs as many e&P's will, through both the expirations of prior poor hedging and higher present market prices. VPI is another crude oriented producer that is going to show huge price realization upsides going forward, but yet their stockprices sells off 25%ish as well. Their bottomline is going to ramp from here - but, yet it sells of to a substantial degree - totally ignoring the bottomline and price realizations ? Have to stay focused on reality here, because the Street sure isn't... Yahoo up another 20 points etc... I saw Kevin Landis the top technology fund mgr; say he was looking to buy companies who would realize their present valuations through growth 3 years out... ? So, is he acknowledging that these companies are fully valued looking 3 years out in many cases ? This is insanity... I guess I will NEVER be a momenteum investor.. Take your JDS Uniphase, your Nokia, Yahoo even your Qualcom here; give me upr oei pxd - rig oii etc...