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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: oilbabe who wrote (33436)	12/6/1999 5:13:00 PM
From: Grabs	Respond to of 70976

olibabe- I see what you are getting at with that post, but I don't think we are heading into a cyclical downturn. There are a lot of other relevant issues to understand other than this chart, like industry capacity utilization, capital expenditures by chip companies over the last couple of years, semicondictor demand, and the trends in the industry. Demand (for semiconductors and therefore semi equipment) is at or near all time highs as chips are getting smaller, use is proliferating, and the industry migrating to copper. Foundries are tight and need equipment, Intel can't even meet demand. All of the majors are planning or are in the process of building copper plants (AMAT has significant market share in Copper equipment). As far as cycles go, yes, we have come a long way in terms of the B:B ratio, however, this should continue on a general upward trend (yes, there will be pullbacks) well into 2001. That's why I am not worried. JMO- Grabs

To: oilbabe who wrote (33436)	12/6/1999 10:14:00 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

I think it looks very similar to 1995. I also think we are 90-120 days from a major market top.Lets just hope we get that last 100% blow off top. Its is time to shake off the greed and sell into strength - gradually slowly before the parabolic top.One must change their mindset to "this is toppy and it is wise to be slightly short" - just like I had to muster up the strength to say this is the bottom - "it is cheap and value is here". Date 10/08 /98 - it was hard but - it is conservative. I do not think we are there yet! Remember don't short till you see the whites of their eyes !!! JMHO Bob