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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigBull who wrote (56176)	12/6/1999 2:33:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

CNBC - Wall St year end bonuses will dwarf the 1980's peak of the Gordon Geco era... "Greed was obviously good" this year; trust me - this headline will get ole' Greenspan's attention. Froth ? bet your ass he thinks so ! I would think that if I was long the DOW - maybe 11,875 would be "tilt" for me - NASDQ - hell its in "pigs get fat -but hogs get slaughtered" territory right now ?!?!? Up what 62% YTD or something ? Go E&P's baby.... I'd hold my driller/service stocks - only RIG, OII look like anything I'd be a buyer in today; but I would start leveraging - margin, or calls here in the E&P's and the safe bet is the balanced oil to gas producers. The big joke is that oil could retrace $3-4 here - hell, the market is discounting $16-$18 crude & $1.85 Gas right here, right now on a historic valuation basis... Watch what happens - crude will retrace $3-$4 and we'll turn & bust out... why not ? - nothing logical has happened so far (VBG). Maybe we just need $21 ish crude for a Rally (VBG)? A little insight from the Banking sector; they are scared $hi^le$$ because of consumer debt levels. USB took a big hit today - numerous factors, but bad performing consumer loans was one' merely the tip of the iceberg imho. Get the hell out of financials imho - add a couple of rate hikes, the economy slowing at all - and delinquencies & bankruptices will flow like MT. St. Helens... Greenspan will and must act to slow consumer borrowing ! Home Equity has been used like "petty cash" - a huge, huge cultural change here that is not going un-noticed by the Banking Industry. People have had their equity sucked out of their main asset & security blanket by Billions of dollars in excessive loan fees and slick , savy marketing - this is a dangerous cultural shift in the mindset of the home being the retirement nestegg and not used for buying the new Jacuzzi, the Bahamaian vacation, the new car etc. Add to that - all the money pumped into this economy by the gains in this market - and Greenspan has to bring the hammer down on this bigtime after Y2K. I still say - 3 rate hikes - .25 way overdue, .25 bringing us up to speed (in the markets eyes only - not Greenspan); and a 3rd of .,25 to even .50 becuase no one will get the message from the first two & the reasons I mentioned above...