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Biotech / Medical : GUMM - Eliminate the Common Cold -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mad2 who wrote (1826)	12/6/1999 4:19:00 PM
From: Eric Fader	Respond to of 5582

OK, I hear you. We can agree to disagree about the likelihood of various positive events, and in the meantime considerable volatility may be a given. What's most interesting to me is that you guys are still predicting a 30-50% drop, a bunch of us are still expecting a 100%+ rise, and there's very little expectation of anything in between. A stock price of between 13 and 18 in February would be quite an anticlimax. -Eric

To: Mad2 who wrote (1826)	12/6/1999 4:31:00 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5582

Mad2, Thanks for your analysis. Here's my view. The daily chart stinks, as it has for a few days. This has probably contributed to the decline the last few days. The weekly and monthly charts are bullish. The 20 week moving average (middle weekly bollinger band) was tested today. While the stock traded below it for a few minutes, it rebounded sharply just as fast to close above it. The entire move from 13 to 12 to 13 1/2 took less than 30 minutes. There are also a lot of lows on the daily chart near 12 from October and November so the support is evident at that price on the daily chart as well. In a nutshell, the stock is volatile, it is under short term pressure, the intermediate and long term trends remain up, the forward fundamentals remain extremely bullish, and the daily chart will turn on a dime and buyers will rush in and push it up just as fast as it went down. I never expected the stock to trade this low but it doesn't change my view on the fundamentals. The decline is being driven by short term negative psychology that won't last. I reiterate, there is enough short term volatility for traders, both long and short, to make money in this stock. The longer one remains short, the more likely that they will give back their profit or lose money. I will not accept your challenge based on the stock price but I will accept it based on fundamental factors such as sales or acceptance of the second study for Zicam by a reputable medical journal. Those are after all, the issues being debated. Regards, Dan