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To: E. Davies who wrote (17570)	12/6/1999 5:05:00 PM
From: Joe S Pack	Respond to of 29970

Here is my read on whole saga. T got pissed off and first they kicked Jermo to talk about tracking crap. Even then they were not convinced with the way things are going. So they putting pressure on ATHM to get going fast and have a few Mil customers come 2002. Best case scenario, they can get close to 7-8M customers (doubling every year) by 2002 timeframe and have a better position to kick others by increasing their rent. It looks like Amstrong is hitting three targets in a single shot: 1) Deflect Open Access Pressure with the help of his pal Kinnard. This move is aimed towards Local regulators. Kinnard has given green signal long time back and he will do whatever T wants to do. 2)Have a better negotiation position when dealing with other ISPs, and 3) Keep ATHM running at full speed and achieve a better market share come 2002. At the same time keep building decent content on Excite portal. But ATHM stock should do well after these knee jerk reaction is over. We have to wait and see how these clowns will look after this show is over. I think there may be some fall out at Jermo's circle. On the T side, there is lot of pressure on delivering numbers as expected by wallstreet. So they came up with Wireless IPO. If they price around 8 to 10B, underwriters will pocket close to a billion$ if they could hype and sell. That will keep the Street dogs quite for a another year or two. It seems T admitted that its consumer side revenue will shrink 3 to 5% by next year and beyond. So they need to do some cost cutting, as though much left, and other gimmicks to keep the Street guys happy. They are losing a lot of long distance revenue now due to competition and it will be the case for foreseable future. JMHO -Nat

To: E. Davies who wrote (17570)	12/6/1999 5:19:00 PM
From: matt gray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Interesting point Eric about IP transport. Once the millstone is gone, If I had an ATM backbone with an international footprint, maybe I'd sell IP voice services to leverage T after 2002. ATHM could easily become a facilities based voice services provider given their existing billing, facilities, and retail arrangments thru @home and @work. Stealing 3 KHZ from a cable modem link won't be a problem. The MSOs haven't figured out how they will be providing voice services. Furthermore, I don't think many want to get involved in the process. They'd be happy with a fixed amount of money each month for a service contract to be split with ATHM. All in all in two years, we will be looking at a 500 pound gorilla. The issue of exclusivity from the one way perspective of T is short sighted. ATHM will have alot of compelling reasons why exclusivity won't matter including brand recognition, a global broadband footprint thru other MSOs and over 5 million subs. After 2002, T isn't about to abandon ATHM.