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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Razorbak who wrote (56212)	12/7/1999 7:16:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

Razor; <wait for the cash flow from $25+ oil and a winter-induced pop in gas prices> That is what the "street" seems to be demanding before they own vs. rent here. I think that the "momenteum" crowd -( my definition as someone who is not virtually allways invested in energy)will demand to see undeniable positive earnings and cfps, prodcution momenteum in these companies before they return. HAL and then BHI's disappoinments seemed to signal to them that it is not time yet... The E&P's had that type of qtr this past reporting period for earnings - they ripped the cover off the ball imho. They should do it again - to an even greater degree, but yet - they've sold off to a much, much greater degree than the driller/service stocks who will trail the E&P's by at least 2, if not 3 qtrs before they can report bottomline results like we just saw and will see from the E&P's. So imho; it's a combination of 3 things. 1. Nat Gas prices- which are weather & sentiment driven for the nearterm 2. The Run Up in the NASDQ & DOW has to blow off 3. The E&P's need a follow up qtr like this past qtr and the driller/service companies need one like the E&P's just had. ... once thought; Nat Gas has really blown off here - but the stocks themselves are pricing $1.85 Nat Gas right here. Maybe the stocks are leading the commodity as far as a better indicator of where gas prices are going ? Maybe we ARE going to see $1.85 Nat Gas within weeks if we do not get a major cold snap ? ...this may be the first demand peak season where the rally & the top was in the first week of September ?!?!? I think the OSX could easily go to 68ish here - but, the E&P's look oversold ? bwdik.. How can OII languish here off of their recent good contract news ? Still some good buys and I'll be watching RIG. It will take OSX 68ish before I see prices that bring me back to the driller & service stocks. Only like OII, RIG here - maybe a couple of others - virtually all in E&P's here fwiw. Botttomline; when this does move, be it the end of this month - mid Jan, off of a DOW/NASDQ correction, or whatever - it's going to be a 30-40 point run straight up in less than one month imho.