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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (82144)	12/6/1999 7:07:00 PM
From: Bill Jackson	Respond to of 1574002

Pravin, RE: Bits shipped! Flash is indeed on the same moore curve, however does the enormous increase in flash use in phone handsets use larger and larger chips? Or does it use smaller chips in larger numbers. I am not sure how much smarts they put in the handsets, but i would expect them to put as much as possible in masked ROMs(cheap) and minimize flash sizes to small units. These smaller units will be more profitable per bit than big ones. In addition the shortage allows AMD to increase the list price of standard products and opens up new products to far better pricing. Both of these tendencies will go against the decrease in cost as density goes up and they look to me like they will overwhelm it and help AMD immensely...the extra fabs will help too. How long until the next bust in this cycle? looks like 1.5 to 2.5 years as by that time the phone market will slow down the rate of climb and there will be more fabs all over in the typical boom/bust flash cycle. Bill

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (82144)	12/6/1999 8:39:00 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1574002

Hi Pravin: Thanks for your insights on falsh bit production. Management is projecting 70% qtr to qtr flash bit production increase by utilizing Austin fab space vacated by the MPU division. I stress the 70% is qtr to qtr, not yr to yr, which could conservatively result in revenues of $2 billion for this segment in Y2000 I would think. Coupled with Athlon and non-Athlon revenues totalling $3 billion, Y2000 looks like a potentially break out year for AMD. Not to quibble about the underlying assumptions at this time as much uncertainty does exist! It's your end out of $250 that impresses me. I'd be happy with $100, but the funny thing is all my "outcomes" based upon assumptions arising from the past 6 months do end up with an expected AMD price in excess of $200, assuming normal market conditions, by the end of Jan. 2001 (i.e after release of Y2000 earnings)!