To: Winkman777 who wrote (56223 ) 12/6/1999 7:39:00 PM From: The Ox Respond to of 95453
Thanks for the article, Winkman. Buy when no one wants them, sell when everyone can't get enough of them. I know it was a tough day in the OS market but one that should be expected, somewhat. OS stocks look pale when compared to the telecom/internet/semiconductors of this market. People just aren't buying and, no doubt, are selling off their losing OS-E+P positions - to reduce 1999 capital gains. Last year oil prices were so bad that no one wanted OS stocks (except for a few of us). A year later, people seem confused that oil prices have soared and most OS stocks have ONLY appreciated a fraction of oil's gain. Can anyone say "bottom of the cycle"?? I don't think it's that tough to figure out. HAL and BHI, 2 of the 3 largest OS stocks have recently put out earnings warnings. Gee, that's not exactly a ringing endorsement for this sector. RIG, the #1 deepwater driller, stock price is so weak, it's not even funny anymore. So, who wants to buy OS stocks when there are companies like VLNC who have less then a million dollars in sales revenue and have multi-billion dollar market caps? (to use Razorbak's example) The big picture sure looks pretty clear to me. I'm surprised more people don't see what I see. Pick you favorite OS stocks this month and buy what you can afford. Or put in your buy limits and wait for them to fall to your price. While one shouldn't ignore the tape, sometimes watching it too carefully causes one to miss the big picture......haven't seen BOOM2K mentioned on this thread today. Did everyone forget at the same time? Buy GOOD COMPANIES when no one wants them...... I remember buying UTI and FLC in single digits last Dec. I purchased WFT in the teens and RON - now CAM in the low 20s. While not exactly in the same class as QCOM, I have no problem with the gains these equities have returned this year. I expect a very similar situation next year. Of course, Post Patrol would view my mentioning these as patting myself on the back. I think it's important to realize that UTI, while lately stuck around $20/share, has return over 150% this year and, if I had better buying instincts, could have returned over 300%. Not too shabby for a simple buy and hold in the patch. For those who are buying small or micro caps - just a simple reminder. They have lagged during most of the bull run, why should that be different now? Just my biased opinion, Michael