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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rupert1 who wrote (73348)	12/6/1999 9:36:00 PM
From: Night Writer	Respond to of 97611

victor, I'm glad you saw the humor. Your view of the Compaq history really has some excellent points. It is more the timing of expressing the points that has everyone confused. I have boiled the bad history down to some simple facts. 1.) The stuffed channels couldn't be cleared fast enough during 1st Q 1999. 2.) Confusion over selling direct hurt the top line. 3.) The 50 billion sales by 2000 goal. 4.) Slow about absorbing DEC. 5.) No clear corporate strategy or road map. 6.) The bottom line decreased. You have to make money, or have a great potential to make money. If you don't, the stock will drop. Compaq lost both for a while. I left the thread. I focus more on the what and less on the who when looking at a company. Now things have changed in relationship to the stock price. I also think Compaq will make money next year. $1.90 to $2.00 is my estimate. Compaq has a plan. My target price is $50 to sell 1/3 of my shares and retire all the puts I have sold. I plan to do this no matter how hot the stock looks. I will be doing a fresh evaluation of Compaq's potential at that point. If it looks good, I'll keep the other two thirds of the stock. If it looks fair, I will sell two thirds of the stock. If it looks poor, I'm hitting the road after selling it all. I'll put two thirds of the proceeds in income producing bonds and look for another huge company down on it's luck company to put some money in over time. I do have a plan. It's like my sense of humor. It might not be great, but I think it will work. Too bad I didn't stick with it last January. NW