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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (9167)	12/6/1999 10:51:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78618

Mike, the best short is a stock of a company on the way to bankruptcy. That is a 100% return that might take years to achieve. Anything short of that usually means a much smaller return over a still considerable time frame. As far as "the end must be near" goes, don't bet on it from my statements. I do not now and NEVER HAVE invested in any stock where I did not think I could make at least 100%, over a couple of years. This is not a passbook savings type of risk we are dealing with in the stock market. I was trained as an actuary, where assessing risks was my business. In my opinion, if you shoot for smaller returns you won't cover well the emotional and intellectual errors you will make yourself in buying or selling, AND the deviations from expected performance even when you execute perfectly with a great analysis, but the company underperforms for a myriad of reasons. In conclusion, since shorting is most of the time a less than 100% game, I won't play.