Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Apollo who wrote (12251)	12/7/1999 10:44:00 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Respond to of 54805

PS: Question to the thread....is it possible that nearly every shiny pebble will do well, because we are in a once-in-a-century period of transition, to this outrageous Internet/Information economy?. IOWs, you can pretty well throw money at just about anything that is "internet-enabling" and do fairly well? Is it that people's investment in I2 represents brilliant investment acumen, or is it that the tsunami of the Internet lifts all boats? No, not every pebble will do well by a long shot. Just as only a few will every attain gorilla status for the obvious reasons, only a few pebbles will evolve into a real staying power company. i2's fundamentals and quarterly numbers have been pretty darn rock solid. It's a small pebble because it was involved in basically a 'smaller market' than say the 'big guys'. Yet, it was and is a 'real game' that the first manual pointed out to us in the enterprise application software arena. Who knew what the heck supply chain management was before reading the first manual? Red Pepper, i2, Manugistics, what was the other one that Oracle bought? - Datalogic or something like that. My original manual is down the hill next to the bed of a friend. Peoplesoft ate Red Pepper, Oracle - Datawhatever. Depending on how one views the game, the specialty market of i2 and Manugistics were the heat of the battle. Manugisitics was a great stock in terms of return until the tide turned in i2's favor. What attracted me the most after this turn of events to consolidate in i2 was management's well telegraphed addition to broaden out their scope by adding the B2B move. A visit to their website is worth the effort. This was a small pebble and still remains one, so there is no way it would qualify for the G&K Index. Not many investors like to dig through the trenches of the small-cap world. If you find a real gem like i2 or Siebel in there - there's a good chance it won't remain a small-cap for the duration. You can't throw money at just about anything even though in this crazy market it seems like it. You want the best team assembled for the long haul and most pebbles don't even come close to making our teams. I may be off target for the thread in general, but I am very interested in my own portfolio of partaking in smaller gorilla games as well as holding the usual subjects in the 'big arena'. Likewise, the Godzilla Game is a solid interest of mine as well. Without that, I now know what EMC, JDS Uniphase, Lucent, Cisco, Microsoft, Intel, Qualcomm and Gemstar are all about. At least I know enough to let them reside in my portfolio. I could beat them to death and chase them side to side, but that's not my interest. They are my anchors and allow me to pursue my love of uncovering those subjects which are taboo on this thread. Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be another group of assembled investors on the Internet that share the same love and desire to look for new gorilla games developing. To me, the returns of Siebel and i2 over the past 18 months have been as exciting as the returns that some of the 'big guys' have given. I'm just meandering as usual, so I'll hush and be quiet. BB

To: Apollo who wrote (12251)	12/7/1999 11:22:00 AM
From: Curbstone	Respond to of 54805

OT ... or is it that the tsunami of the Internet lifts all boats? The Internet itself is the discontinuous innovation and we are all in it's value chain. I am reminded of the old Larson cartoon with two spiders building a web at the bottom of a playground slide, a little girl is on her way down the slide, and one spider says to the other, "If we pull this off, we'll eat like Kings!" Qualcomm and many, many others are indeed pulling it off. Drumstick anyone? AM

To: Apollo who wrote (12251)	12/7/1999 12:21:00 PM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

<<Of course, the downside of shiny pebbles is if one chooses incorrectly, such as my investments in Rambus, which I note on the G & K WW list is the biggest loser. I didn't lose money there>> I did. :0( bubbleboy/Ares@pricked.com

To: Apollo who wrote (12251)	12/8/1999 9:27:00 AM
From: pala	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

<<anything that is "internet-enabling" and do fairly well? Is it that people's investment in I2 represents brilliant investment acumen, or is it that the tsunami of the Internet lifts all boats?>> Stan; e-mania may indeed raise all boats, but tides also go back out. The internet sell off last summer showed us that. i2 represents a brilliant opportunity, managed by a brilliant CEO, who has managed to be stay the leading edge. The question is, will pragmatists in pain (low margins, lack of e-presence). Stampeed to the, now well proven, new Business Model best exemplefied by Dell. Barnes and Nobel having to sell of half? of its e-business, pre IPO, because of bad timing (bad luck really). Or market darling Starbucks losing ~25% of their market cap, because the analysts didn't like them spending money on an e-iniative, illistrate the pragamatists dilemma. Oracle and IBM are engageing in a no holds barred battle for "turn key solutions" to this problem. And may be the only organizations large enough to handle the sheer volume of this torando. i2 and now Sieble are the core tech of IBM's "best of breed solution". SAP recently signing on with IBM indicates that they will never catch up in time and are threatened by Oracle, who owns most of SAP's data bases. This tornado may develop to fast for the ERP's to "subsume" Sieble and i2, in which case the pragmatists would be forced to establish them as the standard. And so get on with the tornado while the market is still strong, and will support the investment. Many feel that Oracle is promoteing "vaporware" and IBM recently announced it would give away 1 million dollars worth of e-services to a few good business plans, to prove its ability to provide the solution, I imagine. Sorry about the spelling and broad brush, but its 0 darkthirty out here on west coast and I'm off to work. I should flesh this out and document the players, NEON and ASDV come to mind off hand. Anyway Stan this is a HUGE piece of both B2B and B2C and just coming into play. Enjoy Doug BTW I know this would also fit the other thread but all the key players are now or future Gorillas