To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (52900 ) 12/7/1999 11:21:00 AM From: Ruffian Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 152472
"People have been looking for reasons to be bearish," says Tom Galvin, strategist at Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette. "So when we got some modestly favorable news in the jobs report, the market just took off." The key number in the November employment report was wages, which rose just 0.1% in the month. That soothed inflation fears and suggested the Federal Reserve may not be so quick to tighten monetary policy again. Other parts of the employment report, however, did suggest continued strength in the economy, including no change in the rock-bottom, 4.1% jobless rate. Galvin notes that there has been widespread apprehension about the surge in technology stocks, which as measured by the Morgan Stanley high-tech index are up 37% since October 15. The MSH, as it's known because of its ticker symbol, now stands 22% above its 50-day moving average, a signal to some technicians that it has risen too quickly and is poised for a setback. Yet the MSH and the Nasdaq regularly are setting new highs. The tech sector may be overextended on the charts, but the money keeps flowing into the major stocks. Microsoft rose 5 last week to 96 1/8 ; Cisco Systems added 2 3/8 to a record close of 95 9/16; Sun Microsystems gained another 6 to 142, also a record. But Intel lagged its giant tech brethren, falling 1 9/16 to 78 11/16. Hewlett-Packard continued its recent recovery, gaining 11 5/8 to 107, as investors reacted enthusiastically to a presentation at a tech conference by Hewlett's charismatic new chief executive, Carly Fiorina, who said the company could see revenue and profit growth of 12%-15% for the coming year. IBM also was strong, rising 7 to 112. Yahoo was the standout in the Internet sector, rising 26 1/8 to a record 253, buoyed by purchases by S&P 500 index funds ahead of Yahoo's entry into the index Tuesday. Yahoo, which was named a new member of the S&P last week, becomes the second 'Net stock after America Online to join the index. Yahoo now has a stunning market value of $75 billion and trades for roughly 370 times projected 2000 earnings. Galvin says that growth-oriented mutual funds, which are gaining the lion's share of new investor money, have few other places to turn besides technology. "The drug sector is under a black cloud of politics and the consumer staples have limited unit growth," he says. Galvin's view: The tech sector, which now accounts for 27% of the S&P, could hit 30% by the spring. He sees another 10% appreciation potential in both the S&P and Dow Industrials by the end of the first quarter of 2000. Galvin says one bullish indicator for stocks is continued heavy inflows into money-market mutual funds, suggesting that there is plenty of available cash awaiting movement into stocks. He estimates that money-fund inflows were about $40 billion in each of the past two months, double the new money going into stock funds.