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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SofaSpud who wrote (2282)	12/7/1999 1:03:00 PM
From: Paul Berliner	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3536

I think the Japanese recovery is for real. Whether or not the economic numbers are great or consistant is irrelevant. The most important thing is that there is a recovery in sentiment. Sentiment can change on a dime, so the recovery is fragile - but it is also real. Optimism is real. Asian recovery is real. The strength of the yen is real and is a huge positive, IMO. And the technicals are very favorable. Also, the market is pricing in the fact that much of the trillions of yen in 10 year bonds held in postal savings accounts that will mature in the coming year will wind up being reinvested in stocks. An important technical aspect is that the Dow and Nikkei have historically moved inversely, and it is very easy to believe that a top is in on the Dow while the Nikkei is in the infancy of a new bull market. I like mid-cap & large-cap Japanese and Asian techstocks such as 6952, IIJI, TMIC, CTEL and PHI, and banks such as MBK and HBC. Casio (6952) may be a bottom-fishing play as the weak stock may prosper from the successful spinoff of its fastest-growing unit. While SNE, NIPNY, MC, KYO, TDK and HIT have all soared this year, there are still several bellweathers such is 6952 that have not moved up because adequate restructuring plans have yet to be announced. I am still bearish on KUB, which is more or less the CAT of Japan. FWIW, should Y2K fears be 100% unfounded, the Jan. rally in Asian markets (and maybe Russia!) should handsomely trump that of U.S. and Western European markets.