To: Lucretius who wrote (78474 ) 12/7/1999 2:34:00 PM From: Cynic 2005 Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 86076
<<stuff like this tell you a dislocation is coming.....>> I agree. I was preparing the following note when you posted that note. Here is my take. -------- [Fair warning to the JOTTs. No need to comment if you don't agree with my view point. You can go on with your business of masterbating in front of your portfolio of 2 or three momentum stocks.] Ramblings for those of you (all two of you -g-) who still realize that I know what I am talking about. A December setback of 10% or so is more likely now than a couple of weeks ago. I will explain: No question that this market is attuned to momentum and momentum only. The underlying confidence is derived from a) nothing bad can happen till at least February of 2000. Y2K is no-event and earnings will be gangbuster. b) Fed pumping liquidity in to the system will somehow will find its way in to my account if I buy AKAM at 250 or SPY at 145. c) I can get out of this stock as soon as I see a reversal. They can't. Here is the proof - it is not from a distant past, but it is form the last 5 trading days. Exhibit a: Coca Cola. Unlike the dot coms, this is a real company and you would think that you can get out before it is too late, right? Exhibit A:techstocks.com Date Close Change Day HighDay Low Volume Dec 03 68 5/16 + 7/8 +1.30% 69 67 13/16 3,834,100 Dec 02 67 11/16 - 1/2 -0.73% 67 15/16 67 2,376,700 Dec 01 68 3/16 + 7/8 +1.30% 69 66 5/8 5,430,800 Nov 30 67 3/16 + 1/8 +0.19% 67 15/16 66 1/2 3,732,100 Nov 29 67 1/16 + 1/2 +0.75% 67 3/16 65 3/4 4,260,100 Total Vol till Dec 3: 19.6 mil. Assume about 16 mil are new long positions and 3.6 mil are short covering and fancy hedging etc. Assuming about ½ of those were able to get yesterday and today, the remaining 8 mil shares were sitting on at least an 8 point loss. techstocks.com Date Close Change Day HighDay Low Volume Dec 03 87 3/4 +1 3/8 +1.59% 89 7/8 85 3/16 2,414,800 Dec 02 86 3/8 +7 1/8 +8.99% 87 78 1/2 3,136,700 Dec 01 79 1/4 +1 11/16 +2.18% 80 7/16 75 1/8 1,591,000 Nov 30 77 9/16 - 5/16 -0.40% 80 1/8 77 1/2 1,386,300 Nov 29 77 7/8 +2 3/8 +3.15% 80 1/8 73 1/16 2,242,500 That is a volume of over 10 mil shares before today's tumble. Need I say more?