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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (2284)	12/7/1999 7:41:00 PM
From: NickSE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

A worthwhile read on Japan's economy and market. 11/99 - Can Japan Grow? aei.org Regards, Nick

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (2284)	12/7/1999 9:06:00 PM
From: Merritt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

Well, Henry...while I've usually enjoyed hearing "Johnny One Note", its takes some counterpoint to make a melody. Although this note may strike some bulls as dissonant, I trust you or someone else will add to it and lend it consonance. Some have spoken of a positive sentiment re Japan - that's true, IMHO, in a sense, a foreign money sense, that is. IMHO, the upwards move in the Nikkei has been the result of foreign money entering their market, not because of any great fundamental improvement, but because of our impatient nature (hey, it's been a while now, the Japanese must be ready to bloom so let's get some money in there before we miss something type of reasoning). The average Japanese is putting their yen in savings, and that's a defensive posture that reflects an uncertain view of the future, IMHO. One reason they could have that view is the strength of the yen, which makes their exports more costly to their foreign customers, which has a tendency to either lower their total export numbers, or their bottom line numbers. The yen's strength derives from the repatriation of dollars, which is being done to help ease their government debt accumulation in the face of further economic stimulus packages, IMHO. That the government feels more boosts are needed speaks loudly of depth of Japanese sentiment, IMHO. Another indication of the Japanese malaise is that there new business start-ups have been in decline since 1991, according to my memory of an Economist article. As SofaSpud said about some stocks, "there are still several bellweathers such is 6952 that have not moved up because adequate restructuring plans have yet to be announced.", so do I feel about the banking and insurance systems. There are some signs of reality surfacing, what with Mitsubishi Motors and Nippon Telegraph cutting 10,000 and 20,000 jobs, respectively. New accounting standards to be implemented next year is also a healthy sign (although I believe it will be disruptive to the Nikkei when those reports are first seen). So maybe I'll have a more sanguine view in 6 to 8 months, but not for now (although I do feel that if there's no immediately apparent Y2K problems, there will likely be a relief rally).

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (2284)	12/10/1999 9:57:00 PM
From: Daniel Chisholm	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

OK Henry, have we waited long enough to hear from you? FWIW I'm bearish w.r.t.Japan, but I really don't have more to contribute than what's already been said here. I do wonder if their banking system has "gotten better", or if it simply isn't in the headlines anymore. Somehow the N. American banks seem to have gotten over the 1982 banking mess (haven't they?), presumably the Japanese banks might also be able to eventually sort themselves out.(?) But then I was a Yen bear at 7500, and still a Yen bear at 6900, so I'm not exactly a walking example of insight.... - Daniel