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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: niceguy767 who wrote (82252)	12/7/1999 5:21:00 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573994

Niceguy, Re:"99Q4 revenues are expected to increase by 30% over 99Q3 are they not? AMD has announced plans to expand production aggressively have they not? Dan Niles, a respected analyst, has been quoted saying that flash bit production is expected to increase 70% qtr. to qtr., has he not? If the foregoing statements are true, then how does one not arrive at $2 billion in Y2000 revenues? (Don't forget all that additional capacity that gets freed up in Austin with the transfer to Dresden of the MPU production)." You are basically wrong on all counts. Flash growth quarter to quarter will be mid-high teens per conf call and NOT 30%. Niles may have been commenting on bit growth. The company has stated it expects 70% yr on yr growth - PERIOD. Dresden capacity for flash is not freed till end of 2000- PERIOD. My advice would be to do some better research and post fewer RAH RAH cheerleader comments - frankly they are getting old and annoying. regards, Kash

To: niceguy767 who wrote (82252)	12/7/1999 5:32:00 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573994

RE <<<What is your estimate for flash memory revenues in Y2000 then?>>> Not 2 billion, niceguy. You have made some aggressive assumptions: that flash will be up 70% sequentially because even though in the CC AMD said 30%, the new plant expansion signals a greater increase. That assumption has less than a 50% chance of being correct. And because Dan Niles concurs does not make me feel better....analysts are as wrong as they are right....why do you think there is such spread in terms of eps estimates for this quarter? Having said that, you have every right to believe in your numbers but what I object to is when you hype them over and over again on this thread as if they were fact. They are one person's estimate....yours. Sometimes I sense with your posting that if you say it over and over, it will come true. Lots of luck on that one. ted