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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: niceguy767 who wrote (82255)	12/7/1999 6:36:00 PM
From: Bill Jackson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1574043

nice..for short. You may be correct because there is a three dimensional effect to the flash shortage. The volume ramps and the price goes up and the unit cost falls. It is true that the price/bit generally falls as size goes up, however since a large part of demand will be for smaller parts the users will be forced to pay through the nose for their flash as AMD ups the prices and the distributors and spot market dealers add even more to the prices to serve desperate buyers. I recall the first LS shortage when 74LS245 were sold for $200 to people with $10,000 machines missing that one part to ship. That was the shortage that built Future as they whored all their LS parts on the spot market instead of acting like a good seller pf parts. Now AMD will not gouge excessively, but they will increase their prices to list and even bump the list a little. All these factors can dramatically magnify the flash revenue and even more so the profits from that same flash can go up 10-20 fold. So you might find you are right. Of course if we run into a flash glut in June.....all bets are off, however expectations are this flash shortage will endure for several years. Bill