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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Madharry who wrote (44984)	12/8/1999 12:46:00 PM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Armin, The Black-Scholes options pricing model has been updated... but I do not know whether the new one contains market sentiment. If anything, the model would be the "fair value" as you say and any discrepancy might be the result of market sentiment. IF you have read the head post to this thread, you will know I am interested in getting the major market moves right... and, hopefully, small deviations in options pricing will not have a substantial impact on your success as an options investor. For example, a week ago, I lost the opportunity of getting calls to replace the puts I had just sold. I was trying to get the last 16th out of the market and as a result I lost the chance of participating in a 500 point move or there abouts. I would have tripled my investment or better... but I was too cheap to even get the opportunity. If you are on the Titantic, rearranging the deck chairs isn't going to make much difference in the outcome... so you certainly want to know which way you are headed. That help? Bill