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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc chatman who wrote (56435)	12/8/1999 12:16:00 PM
From: Wowzer	Respond to of 95453

What is up with SI? So slider is Selling?? Not me this is Christmas shopping at its best. I actually was jumping for joy when the API came out. Everyone was expecting big draw downs even the analysts if this wasn't a set up for a big let down, I don't know what was. So what the API's came in negative this week look at the trend. This just gave the excuse for the weak hands to sell. Got me some BHI at 20 HAL at 34 1/8 CAM at 38 1/8 XTO at 8 7/8 added a little TMR 3 1/8 for the hell of it. This smell looks and acts like capitulation day. Its time for a little revenge Rory

To: marc chatman who wrote (56435)	12/8/1999 12:40:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

hmmm; the major blowoffs do look tempting; nibbling at XTO VPI. Good point on XTO's hedging, it was also virtually the las one to collapse here. VPI is perhaps "the" anomaly pureplay on crude oil fwiw. OIL is more speculative - no problem with it, but the discoveries of late have made it less of a value play. NEV is really poorly hedged to crude going forward - VPI is not - I think it is the #1 buy in E&P's here on a fundamental basis, being very leveraged to crude oi,nearly a crude pureplay and having sold off to where one has 67% upside to its recent high which is still strongly supported by even $18 ish crude let alone a retrace to $22. The nat gas plays are strongly signaling that the Street sees the possibility of $1.85ish gas folks. NBL at a 5 year low even discounts that, as does EOG, and the balanced plays of OEI PXD UPR etc. I am nibbling back at a few here, but still keep lots of cash. It will be impossible to "miss" a move here as the highway will continue to be littered with individual blowups going forward - ala~ a HAL, of BHI off of news etc, or stocks like CRK & TMR today in small caps that are at no brainer longterm hold levels. These will see huge upside , its just a matter of when. Personally I prefer the large caps here - as virtually all of them have 50-60% upside to their recent highs. Now if someone can margin leverage the return to those highs; that is potentiall a "triple". But, if you miss and you are at 30% maintenance; another 10% move down becomes a 30% hit to your capital. Hardly worth making a margin bet yet imho. Thought it was - and if you do, you'd better be willing to dance in & out as this irrationality continues. Sadly, with nothing other than profit taking standing in the way of the DOW & NASDQ runs thru year end - and nothing other than a nationwide cold snap that will stop Nat Gas's freefall here, can move the Oilpatch; it simply is not prudent to expect any sector rotation mo-mo; and folks - that is what it is going to take to get this train rolling in the other direction. I am protecting what I've worked my ass off to make this year; willing to dance a "bit" in & out here; but also very, very respectfull of where this total separation from commodity prices, supply levels, OPEC compliance and the fundamentals in general has & can - take us. Waiting for SII sub $34ish, FLC in the $10's, ESV - 15ish, UTI $16's , HAL $32ish - and really being carefull on Nat Gas pureplays; allthough they are the contraian play & the most oversold here in E&P's - I may focus on the oilier names for a while here like VPI. The balanced plays like OEI UPR PXD will certainlly fly and XTO is intriguing sub $9 here... hell everything in E& P land is unquestionably in "throw a dart" valuation land; its just a matter of time, or how low they may go - can you buy them cheaper, or a lot cheaper later... Man,,,, this is the single "worst" phase of this cycle since the original June-Aug swoon of 1998 that seemed to never end... I have not forgot that feeling - it kind of started to feel like that again here of late. Michael Happel knows what I am referring to. Sometimes a little fear takes over - and that's a good thing. DONT MARGIN ! BE SAFE... Live to play another day, by all means buy here if you have the cash - and hold if you want to - if you are a longterm investor; but if you are a trader, don't get crazy with the freight train coming downhill here... Just nibbling and willing to drop & sell anything & everything at a momements notice here... willing to pour it on the buy side as well - but I've got a healthy respect for irrationality & history here in the oilpatch... Momenteum, what a nasty assed word. Where is David Dreman on CNBC when we need him ? Even Barton Biggs seemed mesmerized yesterday on CNBC and afraid to pop the bubble...