To: Rocket Scientist who wrote (8609 ) 12/8/1999 4:01:00 PM From: Rocket Scientist Respond to of 29987
BLS et.al. were at an analysts presentation yesterday, recording of presentation is at 888-203-1112 for domestic callers and 719-457-0820 for international calls. The confirmation code is #847257 for both calls and replay is good for one week. Orbital and Hughes were also there; G*/Loral's is the second of three presentations. Highlights from my point of view: G* positives: ready to start billed service in Canada 15Dec; In US, Airtouch has agreement with DoJ on license, working way through bureaucracy now; 400 h/s in friendly users' hands. Elsacom: 700 phone subscriber contracts already signed; 400 marine kits ordered as result of marketing at Genoa boat show; 150 phones in trial with military in Kosovo; France: 130 phones with vertical orgs, including utility and military; 1K h/s ordered to replace radios now in use by "RadioComm2000" (potential user of 10K h/s). Expect S. Africa license in January; expect 1500 phones to be sold in Brazil by year end with limited commercial billing. SP selected in India, can't disclose who. G* Negatives: All of first 16GWs not on line until end of 1Q2000 (though all 38 supposedly on line by y/e.) UTs by y/e 2000 not to exceed 650K. No mention of China... Mgmt spin: initial market reaction at high end of expectations; last week's 150M$ offering not because of imminent need, but to reduce risk, increase flexibility in coming months. Achievement of 90% call completion/95% call retention "good as it gets in phone industry." Phone production: 45-50K by y/e; 40K per month thereafter; mnfctrs can easily double this rate, but won't happen earlier than 3rd qrtr 2000. SS/L, FSS, Cyberstar; rehash of old material, mainly; announced SS/L informed would receive order for two new Intelsat 9's. Provided utilization rates on FSS sat's and typical xponder lease rates; indicated FSS market was firm in US, Europe and Latin America; soft but improving in Asia. Re: McCaw purchase of ICO or Irid. BLS views ICO as viable competitor, but G* expected competition, so no impact to BP; BLS doesn't see how McCaw or anyone else could rescue Iridium. My overall take: pleasant surprise at initial show of interest in GSM-saturated Europe. SPs seem to be doing the right things, at their own pace, maybe a little slower than investors would like, but with reasonable due dispatch.