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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alex Chun who wrote (24339)	12/8/1999 3:37:00 PM
From: cfimx	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

very eloquent Alex. I can FEEL your conflict. Let me me be brief. "Investors as a whole cannot get anything out of their businesses except what the businesses earn" WEB, Fortune 11/99

To: Alex Chun who wrote (24339)	12/8/1999 3:52:00 PM
From: cheryl williamson	Respond to of 64865

I think WB has a point. Over time, a stock will pretty much reflect its earnings. However, that leaves quite a bit of room for discussion about what an accurate "reflection of earnings" really amounts to. Sun may be ahead of itself at this point, but there IS an historical shift taking place in the world: data and voice communications are the modern day equivalent of the invention of the automobile, or perhaps the widespread use of electricity, or the development of the railroads. This represents a qualitative shift in the way of life for millions and millions of people around the world. That's significant. It's certainly more significant than any stock- market analysis. The equity markets are merely reflecting the optimism of our move into a new millennium and the hope for a better future that our technology will provide. We, as a people believe in technology and science and the world it has brought us. That world, for the most part is much better with the advances of technology than without it. Either way, however, it is widely accepted as a leader into the future. Anyone with a big piece of this new technology is going to generate a lot of interest. Sun is generating a LOT of interest right now, mainly because they are able to bring their vision to market, execute on their promises, and influence the way this technology is thought of and used. Naysayers can badmouth Sun all they want. But no one can deny that the ideas and vision put forth by Sun in 1995 (and earlier) are just now coming true for the entire industry. Investors are oppotunistic enough to want a piece of that action. So the stock has momentum right now. It's really that simple, IMO. cheers, cherylw

To: Alex Chun who wrote (24339)	12/8/1999 3:54:00 PM
From: marvin litman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

ALEX, Thank you for that excellent commentary. We truly are in a brand new world in the art of valuating companies. I especially liked your comparason to the dollar. It's a whole new world. Where all of this will take us is yet to be seen. The question is however....how cautious can we be. MARVIN

To: Alex Chun who wrote (24339)	12/8/1999 3:57:00 PM
From: trouthead	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

I don't think a major paradigm shift is occurring. I think the market is experiencing broader participation from the general public. And that public is more forward looking than ever. Therefore it is willing to pay higher prices for growth stocks than ever before. The public expects tremendous growth from SUNW. Watch what happens if it doesn't come through. The price is still tied to earnings. Disclaimer: I own SUNW today and will own it five years from now. jb ps. I enjoy reading twister and am often put off by the strident tone of some SUNW investors, but twister is wrong today and will be wrong five years from now.jb

To: Alex Chun who wrote (24339)	12/8/1999 4:52:00 PM
From: JC Jaros	Respond to of 64865

See, I don't get the part about measuring value with P/E. All that our multple says (to me) is Sun has a LOT of future expectation. So? They've leaped like this in the past. They executed through hyper-growth. People believe that they'll do it again, and after following these guys closely (read: closely) for 4 years, I'm inclined to agree. I can't imagine another company I'd rather own with a mega P/E such as this one's. -JCJ

To: Alex Chun who wrote (24339)	12/8/1999 8:50:00 PM
From: Jean M. Gauthier	Respond to of 64865

Actually , I like your comments about currency... When I did my thesis on currencies amd international finance, I was asking myself the same thing. Please do not laugh, but I do think with the demise of communism, capitalism is on an unstoppable roll. Massive unlocking capacity is coming online all over the world... Coke became a transnational corporation when it went global for beverages abd became a megacap. What happens when Microsoft, Cisco, SUN and dell, among others bring capitalism and products to over 6 billion humans, most of which have not had a chance to participate in rising standards of living in the Americas... among others... How many people are on the internet ? How many do we have to get on yet ? There will be problems, but we ain't seen nothing yet... In 10 years, mark my words, we will analyze ad infinitum the rise of mega-transnational corporations... Enough philosophizing for 1 night. To make 1 story short, or shorter <g>, only SHAREOWNERS will make out like gangbusters, and employees, customers etc. etc. will be almost victims.. JMVHO Jean

To: Alex Chun who wrote (24339)	12/8/1999 8:50:00 PM
From: Jean M. Gauthier	Respond to of 64865

Actually , I like your comments about currency... When I did my thesis on currencies amd international finance, I was asking myself the same thing. Please do not laugh, but I do think with the demise of communism, capitalism is on an unstoppable roll. Massive unlocking capacity is coming online all over the world... Coke became a transnational corporation when it went global for beverages abd became a megacap. What happens when Microsoft, Cisco, SUN and dell, among others bring capitalism and products to over 6 billion humans, most of which have not had a chance to participate in rising standards of living in the Americas... among others... How many people are on the internet ? How many do we have to get on yet ? There will be problems, but we ain't seen nothing yet... In 10 years, mark my words, we will analyze ad infinitum the rise of mega-transnational corporations... Enough philosophizing for 1 night. To make 1 story short, or shorter <g>, only SHAREOWNERS will make out like gangbusters, and employees, customers etc. etc. will be almost victims.. JMVHO Jean P.S. I love my new 1200 shares of SUN, and my new 4x 2001 Call 25 LEAPS... Thanks to whoever sold them to me last year... I paid about $ 3000 for it, It's now worth a fortune, and HE's going to lose his 400 shares when I CALL them away from him in January 2001.

To: Alex Chun who wrote (24339)	12/9/1999 1:26:00 AM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

Alex Stock is a pure commodity. The price of a stock is determined by supply and demand. The price of a stock need bear no relation to the underlying value of the company. We have seen this truism time and again this year with IPO's and other companies whose stock price has gone parabolic. The company's story influences the demand for the stock. The supply of stock can be manipulated to some extent by stock splits and varying stock float relative to the demand. This has been known for centuries( see Cajetan)

To: Alex Chun who wrote (24339)	12/9/1999 3:45:00 AM
From: nihil	Respond to of 64865

A dollar is worth what people collectively believe it to be worth. So too with a share of stock? Thoughtful post, but tech leaders are clearly in a bubble. This is a blowoff. Several leaders (CSCO, SUNW, QCOM) are going vertical and the little flashy stocks and internuts are going wild. Greed is in the saddle and riding hard. Few puts are sold in relation to calls. Little profit is being taken. It hurts so bad when you sell and the thing keeps going up. Price formation in bubble is easy. The train is leaving the station. You can't afford to miss a single day. Every stock I was watching went up a lot today. I feel like a fool for missing them. Your high flyers increase your ability to buy others in your margin account. No more missing the train. I am buying 2002 LEAPS out of the money calls on my long term favorites like SUNW, and selling the stock. Then I'm trying to leg into surething spreads with offers (GTC) to sell higher priced calls. If the market keeps going up, I should fill on some of these. I am selling lots of stock in high flyers substituting these call. With cash for margin I will buy some 2002 OTM puts (to replace my stock in a couple of years). Of course, if there is a crash in late January (or even earlier) I'll buy back the short calls. No doubt the techs will continue to grow earnings rapidly, even if the economy tanks. There's no stabilizing PE's above 30 on anything. A crash is a crash. And no one is secure. Stock prices are set by the most eager buyer and the least eager seller. (it only takes one idiot to make a spike (check out NTPL). No matter how hard a stock is beaten down, new suckers are born every day (checkout ADSP today). Some ought to drive a stake through that one's heart. SUNW is the real thing, but terribly overpriced. As they say in the boxing ring, protect yourself at all times.

To: Alex Chun who wrote (24339)	12/12/1999 8:42:00 PM
From: Alex Chun	Respond to of 64865

Yahoo says that SUNW earnings will be announced on 1/3. Is this correct? Isn't that awfully early for Sun? biz.yahoo.com (See Upcoming Events on the above-referenced page) Alex

To: Alex Chun who wrote (24339)	1/2/2000 4:25:00 AM
From: Alex Chun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

More on the gold standard and today's unprecedented stock valuations (which I first wrote about in Message 12226102 ): A piece in today's (1/1) New York Times notes: "As the 20th century began, high-yielding railroad shares were virtually the only blue-chip American stocks that a conservative investor would consider. As it ended, the most popular stocks were being issued by young companies that had never earned a dollar, let alone paid a dividend." Investors have shifted from seeking high dividends, to seeking strong earnings, to seeking strong earnings growth, to seeking companies with good prospects to make money someday (Sun of course makes money, but its valuation is based on a glowing appraisal of its future prospects). In other words, over time we've gone from a focus on cash-in-hand to a focus on possible cash farther and farther into the future. This process, it seems to me, bears a striking resemblance to what has happened with money and currency over the centuries, where we've gone from a barter system (which is actually pre-money) to coins, to paper money pegged to gold, to "just" paper money, to even more abstract devices such as credit cards (which of course are not money strictly speaking). Again, the prospect of realizing a benefit has been pushed farther and farther into the future. These two phenomena, I think, bear more than a superficial resemblance. I believe they are both manifestations of increasing confidence in their respective underpinning institutions, many of which they share in common. For example, I am pretty sure the United States will still be around in 2100. I don't think I would have had the same confidence about the 100-year outlook in 1900, 1916, 1943, or 1963. Similarly, I am more confident in today's accounting standards (imperfect though they are) than I would have been in the accounting "standards" during the days of the robber barons. Further examples abound. So, assuming that human nature has not changed and that people now have the same risk tolerance as people 100 years ago, increased confidence in the future would naturally lead to planning and wagering that is more future-based. A prudent person will worry about the short term if the short term is not guaranteed. The same person will shift his attention to longer and longer terms to the extent that the short term becomes more assured. Therefore, I propose that today's lofty stock valuations may be part of a secular trend toward increased confidence in the future, and may -- may -- be entirely legitimate. -Alex P.S. Thanks to all the Sun bulls and bears who liked my previous post on this subject and said so.