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To: marc chatman who wrote (56493)	12/8/1999 9:56:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Marc-here is my EW take on the bigger picture since the 65 low on Oct 8------Since we held 65.04 this morning, we still have 2 Alternate Counts to consider from the 65 low--EITHER we are doing a series of 1-2's in here with each series of 1-2's being part of the beginning of a larger up Wave---OR we are near completion of a 3 wave partial retrace from 65 and after a blip slightly above 88 the OSX will once again resume the downside and this time with enough gusto to take out 65 and then some.-----The Bullish Alternative is that from the 65 low on Oct 8 we did a 1 up to 75.80 on Oct13 and a 2 down to 67.52 on Oct 18--as part of the first 1-2 of the Largest Wave---then we did another 1-2 up to Oct 25 and down to Nov5 as a 1-2 of a smaller Upwave not yet complete----then did a third 1-2 up to 88 and back to a smidgen above the beginning of the "1" and now we are going to blast off and keep going up in wave 3 of such third wave (ie a series of 1-2's with each 1-2 part of a different overall wave---That's the Bullish Alternative and one that is alive because the OSX refused to print below 69.04 this morning-------The Bearish Alternative is that the entire movement from the 65 low on Oct 8 is a corrective 3 wave affair consisting of 2 ABC's strung together (which is common). The first ABC went up to 77 on Oct 25---then we had a retrace to 69.04 after which we launched the second and last ABC (where the A went to 88, this morning was the B and we will soon print above 88 for the C) after which we head down hard again and below 65-------fwiw, I tend to favour the Bearish Alternative at present because (1) there are too many 1-2's in the Bullish Alternative for my liking, and (2) I still think crude is going to test the lower 20's soon, maybe after we print a bit past 27 to complete 5 waves up on crude since the 10.50ish low.----So bottom line, I for one am still very cautious in here. The best thing that may be happening is that we now have the opportunity to put in a daily positive divergence on the MACD such that if and when the OSX heads down again and takes out 65-69 the MACD will refuse to confirm the decline.----not a popular view but that is what I am concerned about. my 2c