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To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (148785)	12/8/1999 6:03:00 PM
From: jhg_in_kc	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 176387

In order for a bubble to burst, something must prick it. It was the Arab oil embargo in the 70s triggering stagflation which extended until August 1982. Higher interest rates triggered the 87 crash. So what could happen to burst this bubble? We have zero inflation, zero wage pressures, high productivity and a growing economy . What will burst the bubble? There is no sign of a major war anywhere in the Middle East or Europe; plus barriers to trade are falling around the world. Only the Fed can burst the bubble. To do this it will have to TARGET THE STOCK MARKET AS A CAUSE OF UNDESIRABLE INFLATION. wILL IT DO THIS? SURELY NOT. jhg

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (148785)	12/9/1999 7:43:00 AM
From: jttmab	Respond to of 176387

Chuzz, I think there is an important take home lesson to be learned from this kind of analysis. No doubt. I'm just not sure what it is? Possibilities include. 1. Hot growth stocks, those that survive eventually return to averages; overinflated stocks underperform the market looking forward. 2. Don't bother investing in individual equitities in the long run. Buy the index funds. There is a natural rotation of hot growth stocks into the index funds. 3. Invest only, short term to medium term, in hot growth stocks or run them until they aren't hot anymore. 4. Momentum trading is the answer. 5. Take your profits. Get a hunting rifle, load up on ammunition; take survival training and go off into the hills of Montana never to be seen again. BTW, the average P/E of the NAZ last Friday was 175 (ONE HUNDRED AND SEVENTY FIVE!). jttmab