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Technology Stocks : Seac - Seachange New IPO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Milt Best who wrote (342)	12/9/1999 1:18:00 PM
From: PeterBurgess	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 431

Milt, Of course, Seachange won't get all the ITV business, but right now it looks like that Seachange will get 2-10x as much as CCUR. Seachange has agreements with 9 MSOs for VOD next year. CCUR has announced agreements with 1 MSO (TWX).(Maybe they have some unannounced agreements, maybe they are negotiating with other MSOs, maybe, maybe) The reason for the MSO committments is that Seachange has been engineering, installing, servicing, and selling video servers to the cable, telco, and broadcast industry since 1993. Yesterday 1 million minutes of video on 20,000 channels were played on Seachange equipment yesterday, purchased by MSOs such as TWX, COX, TCI, Comcast, Charter, UPC, Telewest, Rogers, Shaws,... schange.com CCUR's revenue is from its declining realtime business (if it had promise, they would be a player in embedded systems market; or crushing LINUX). Their management cast about probing entry into the gaming and video market to stay alive -- but their actual revenue from video servers has been insignificant and probably $0.00 from the cable industry. They best move was to sell low priced warrants to SFA and thereby become a second ITV source to TWX. CCUR calls itself a leader in ITV, which has been easy to do because the industry is just being to evolve, and the number of industry trials and deployments is tiny. Yes, it is a good idea to diversify your holding into a basket of industry stocks when you have no idea which company is going to emerge as the industry leader. But I think that the 9 MSOs who have committed to Seachange for ITV in Fiscal 2000 has given Seachange a huge front-runner advantage. Maybe Seachange is undervalued at 5.5x video sales and service revenue, while CCUR is overvalued at 10.86x Realtime sales and service revenue.