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Strategies & Market Trends : Cents and Sensibility - Kimberly and Friends' Consortium -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gladman who wrote (41350)	12/8/1999 6:29:00 PM
From: TheKelster	Respond to of 108040

Hi Gladman. It is never my objective to belittle anyone. My character is such that I don't mind a little gig (give or take) now and then <g>. I do not wish to offend but recognize that some people are easily offended. I sincerely try to avoid any personal attack and will never respond to a post that employs such childish behavior. Having expressed that, I would say I marvel at this thread sometimes. Meaning simply that I feel sharing ideas is great, but, everyone participating should be doing their best to acquire an education in the field before committing much money to the process. You probably didn't need all that, and certainly didn't ask for it. <g> More to the point. If you have not studied Steve Nison's first candlestick book "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques", I recommend this as your introduction to TA. It covers both Japanese and Western TA concepts. It is an easy read. I dare say will increase your TA abilities five fold regardless of what you may already know. The TA on NTPL. Keep in mind, I am no guru. I only employ and repeat what I have learned from others. First off, on 12-6 you have a candle that extends from a low of 6 13/16 to a high of 9 7/8. The candle closes at 8 1/4. This shows what is called a bearish shadow. Meaning the market has rejected a price much above the 8 mark. The bulls were in control until 8 per share. When they tried to move up above this mark many others felt that selling was the thing to do. This stock has moved up from a low of 2.00 per share to a high of nearly 10 per share in just about 2 weeks. The further up a stock moves the more the owners feel like selling it. If I had a 100,000 dollars of this stock and suddenly 2 weeks later my 100K was worth 5 times as much, you know I might feel like selling. In fact many owners felt like selling. The candle of 12-6 has a tall bearish shadow. Next day. The stock opens below the close of the prior day. That's bad. Then it closes low, that's worse. Now you have a lower high, lower low, and lower close. All bad, if you are long. Additionally, during the day the stock moved a lot lower and then recovered a bit. When it dips low and recovers a lot of beginners think "wow it's doing better now, I escaped a bullet". If you know your candles, what you see is what is called a "hanging man". Hanging man = bad news. Now you have a prior bearish shadow and a hanging man. But wait, it gets worse. The body of 12-7 is also in a position below the top of the white candle on 12-6. This combination sets up the Harami. Not good. 12-8, it gets worse. Now you have day 3 of the Harami and another lower high and lower low. Still you might hold your breath, until the body of the candle ends lower than the body of the candle on 12-6, say 7.00, you might yet recover. Except, yuck, the ISLAND book. Too many sellers lined up and not enough buyers. Worse yet the buyers aren't offering near what the sellers want. Maybe it will reverse in the morning (don't hold your breath), it might but it might not. Now take all that and now add another nasty TA. The MACD on the 60' is negative AND expanding in a downward direction. Puke. Well take heart. In the process of trading stocks, if you survive, you do learn the lesson that nothing is cut and dried. I don't not have a crystal ball. I am quite frequently wrong. I just do not like betting hard earned money on bad odds plays. It may turn up all roses for you, I simply do not know, but the TA is not positive. There is more actually, but this should do for a start. Premium Hands, KK PS gotta throw in one more TA. 3,5,8's come into play here. For the low-down on 3,5,8's visit the Pristine site. The info is free (or at least used to be). This is all very basic TA. Please, for your own well being learn this stuff.